Stochastic effects of radiation

UNSCEAR. Sources and effects of ionizing radiation. United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation. 1993 Report to the General Assembly. Annex F Influence of dose and dose rate on stochastic effects of radiation, 1993. 

A factor by which the equivalent dose to an organ or tissue is multiplied in order to account for the different sensitivities of different organs and tissues to the induction of stochastic effects of radiation. The tissue weighting factors used for radiation protection purposes are shown in Table 6.2. 

The stochastic effects of radiation exposure (e.g. an increased risk of cancer) are not quantified in the derivation of the D values. However, given that the risk of stochastic effects increases with exposure, higher category sources will, in general, present a higher risk of stochastic effects. Furthermore, the deterministic effects resulting from an accident or malicious act are likely in the short term to overshadow any increased risk of stochastic effects. The... 

Radiation injury causes two types of effects on biologic symptoms, stochastic and deterministic. Stochastic effects are aU or nothing effects. At increasing doses, the probability of a stochastic effect increases, but once the stochastic effect occurs, further inaeases in exposure will not worsen the severity of the effect. A conunon stochastic effect is radiation-associated malignancy. In comparison, the severity of deterministic effects is proportional to the dose. Examples of deterministic effects include suppression of hematopoiesis, cataract formation and fertility impairment (4). 

Kossenko MM, Hoffman DA, Thomas TL. 2000. Stochastic effects of environmental radiation exposure in populations living near the Mayak Industrial Association Preliminary report on study of cancer morbidity. Health Phys 79(l) 55-62. 

STOCHASTIC EFFECTS the radiation effects, generally occurring without a threshold level of dose, whose probability is proportional to the dose and whose severity is independent of the dose. 

ICRP (1977) Recommendations of the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP). ICRP publication no. 26. Pergamon, Oxford ICRP (1984) Non-stochastic effects of ionising radiation. Annals of the ICRP publication no. 41. Pergamon, Oxford... 

To protect individuals and society against the undue effects of radiation (deterministic and stochastic health effects, environmental contamination). 

It is assumed that within the range of exposure conditions usually encountered in radiation work, the risks of cancer and hereditary damage increase in direct proportion to the radiation dose. It is also assumed that there is no exposure level that is entirely without risk. Thus, for example, the mortality risk factor for all cancers from uniform radiation of the whole body is now estimated to be 1 in 25 per sievert (see below for definition) for a working population, aged 20 to 64 years, averaged over both sexes. In scientific notation, this is given as 4 X 10 per sievert. Effects of radiation, primarily cancer induction, for which there is probably no threshold and the risk is proportional to dose are known as stochastic, meaning of a random or statistical nature. ... 

The response of humans to var> ing doses of radiation is a field tlmt has been widely studied. The obscr ed radiation effects can be categorized as stochastic or nonstochastic effects, depending upon tlie dose received and tlie time period over which such dose was received. Contrary to most biological effects, effects from radiation usually fall under tlie category of stochastic effects. The nonstochastic effects can be noted as having three qualities a minimum dose or tlucshold dose must be rcceii ed before the particular effect is obsen ed the magnitude of the effect increases as the size of the dose increases and a clear, casual relationship can be determined between the dose and the subsequent effects. 

Health effects from exposure to radiation fall into two categories stochastic (based on probability) and acute. Stochastic effects typically take several years to materialize (e.g., cancer appearing 20 years after an exposure) while acute effects such as nausea or reddening of the skin may take only weeks, days, or even hours to materialize. Stochastic and acute effects are described in more detail in the following sections. First, however, a brief discussion describes how radiation damages human tissue and why exposure may produce one or a combination of the described health effects. 

The human body is equipped to deal with nominal levels of radiation doses. Background (natural) radiation from radon gas, cosmic sources, soil, and water produces an average dose of about 0.3 rem (0.003 Sv) per year.4 However, large doses of radiation generated after a terrorist attack can overwhelm the body s ability to repair damage, leading to stochastic or acute health effects. 

Stochastic radiation effects are typically associated with those that occur over many months or years (i.e., are typically chronic instead of acute). Chronic doses are typically on the order of background doses (0.3 rem [0.003 Sv] or less) and are not necessarily associated with larger doses that could result from a terrorist attack with radiological weapons. However, stochastic health effects are defined here as effects that occur many years after chronic or acute exposure to radiological contaminants. Stochastic effects are categorized as cancers and hereditary effects. Because no case of hereditary effects (e.g., mutation of future generations) has been documented, this discussion focuses on cancer risk. 

Specific health effects resulting from an acute dose appear only after the victim exceeds a dose threshold. That is, the health effect will not occur if doses are below the threshold. (Note that this is significantly different from the LNT model used to predict stochastic effects.) After reaching the acute dose threshold, a receptor can experience symptoms of radiation sickness, also called acute radiation syndrome. As shown in Table 3.2, the severity of the symptoms increases with dose, ranging from mild nausea starting around 25-35 rad (0.25-0.35 Gy) to death at doses that reach 300-400 rad (3-4 Gy). Table 3.2 shows that the range of health effects varies by both total dose and time after exposure. 

It is also unlikely that the doses associated with a dirty bomb will produce even the milder acute effects. Although the observation of acute radiation syndrome may be unlikely after a dirty bomb explosion, doses should be kept ALARA to limit the potential for acute and stochastic effects. The entire range of acute radiation syndrome effects will be observed after an attack with a nuclear weapon, as described in Chapter 5. 

Some radiation effects result from nonlethal damage to a single cell. These effects are called stochastic. They have the property that there is no threshold for these effects to occur. It is the probability of occurrence rather than its severity which increases with dose. The causation of some cancers may be rooted in a stochastic effect. 

The basic assumption of the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) is that for stochastic effects, a linear relationship without threshold is found between dose and the probability of an effect within the range of exposure conditions usually encountered in radiation work. However, ICRP cautions that if the dose is highly sigmoid, the risk from low doses could be overestimated by linear extrapolation from data obtained at high doses. Furthermore, ICRP... 

UCL takes into account measurement uncertainty in the study used to estimate the dose-response relationship, such as the statistical uncertainty in the number of tumors at each administered dose, but it does not take into account other uncertainties, such as the relevance of animal data to humans. It is important to emphasize that UCL gives an indication of how well the model fits the data at the high doses where data are available, but it does not indicate how well the model reflects the true response at low doses. The reason for this is that the bounding procedure used is highly conservative. Use of UCL has become a routine practice in dose-response assessments for chemicals that cause stochastic effects even though a best estimate (MLE) also is available (Crump, 1996 Crump et al., 1976). Occasionally, EPA will use MLE of the dose-response relationship obtained from the model if human epidemiologic data, rather than animal data, are used to estimate risks at low doses. MLEs have been used nearly universally in estimating stochastic responses due to radiation exposure. 

Given the models for estimating external or internal radiation doses in specific organs or tissues, the following sections consider the responses resulting from a given dose by any route of exposure. As is the case with hazardous chemicals, both stochastic and deterministic radiation effects can occur. 

In spite of uncertainties in the dose-response relationship for radiation discussed above, it is generally believed that radiation risks in humans can be assessed with considerably greater confidence than risks from exposure to most hazardous chemicals that cause stochastic effects. The state of knowledge of radiation risks in humans compared with risks from exposure to chemicals that cause stochastic effects is discussed further in Section 4.4.2. 

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