Risk Analysis Model

In conducting a risk evaluation, we must first develop a risk analysis model. This model is a representation of the system, its protective systems (to prevent an accident), the accident scenarios we are worried about, various events that could lead to a dangerous situation, and finally the various potential outcomes of each event possibility. 

This model should look at all aspects of the system, its design, failure history, and current operations and then identify scenarios of concern. These scenarios of concern typically are the hazards identified in the system. 

Estimates should be as realistic as possible, not superconservative. If you over-or underestimate, you will not be able to optimize the risk. Obviously, a risk assessment is very different from a worst-case analysis. 

With scenarios developed, the model looks at how the system responds to the various scenarios. It focuses on how well the system can respond to the scenarios. And with those system responses are the resulting consequences. 

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This report presents a set of failure rate and time-to-restore data for typical components of a coal gasification combined cycle power generation unit. The data was used to examine the reliability and availability of a generic power generation unit using risk analysis models. 

In defining units of analysis it is also important to take account of Vose s (2000, p 201) cardinal rule of risk analysis modeling every iteration of a risk analysis model must be a scenario that could physically occur. ... 

Risk analysis modeling for pharmaceutical manufacturing systems... 

Vose, D. (1997). Monte Carlo risk analysis modeling. In Fundamentals of Risk Analysis and Risk Management, Molak, V., ed., Lewis Publishers, New York. 

M. Todinov, Reliability and Risk Analysis Models, Wiley, New York 2005. 

Self-rescue and safety measures in quantitative risk analysis, modelling and case studies for accidental toxic releases... 

Having developed a method to include self-rescue in a risk analysis model, the focus is set on the safety measures improving self-rescue and their effect on the number of victims (Oude Spraakste 2009). 

This paper describes the model and illustrates the model with several case studies. The effects of the selected safety measures are shown in terms of the number of injured and lethal victims. The model can be integrated with effect- and quantitative risk analysis models and will be implemented in EFFECTS and RISKCURVES. 

The purpose of investigating the effects of uncertain parameters is to illustrate the effect of the changes in the risk analysis model, and to gain imderstanding and confidence in the risk analysis results. 

Reliability importance measures The risk analysis model is first analysed using importance measures to analyze the impact of changes in the input parameters. 

Thus, in setting out to devise a method of analysing management risks, decisions must be taken as to where the focus - at least, the initial focus -should be directed. It is likely that, in creating a risk-analysis model, the assumptions that would need to be made at any one level would differ from those at any other. Care would be necessary in devising a method that is applicable at all levels. 

Pate-Comell, M.E., and Fischbeck, P.S. 1990. Safety of the Thermal Protection System of the Space Shuttle Orbiter Quantitative Analysis and Organizational Factors. Phase I The Probabilistic Risk Analysis Model and Preliminary Observations. Research report to NASA, Kennedy Space Center. NASA, Washington, DC. 

Piegdoh, I., Boryczko, K. Eid, M., 2014. Water supply systems risk analysis model by means of RENO software. Safety, Reliability and Risk Analysis Beyond the Horizon. Taylor Francis Group, London 2014, pp. 1987-1992. 

Based on this observation, we propose in this paper a method enabling to convert a risk analysis model into a simulation model. This simulation model is used to perform simulation in degraded mode in order to obtain quantitative performance indicators that can represent the degradation of the system performance in risk situation. 

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