Probabilistic risk analysis

The acronym for chemical process quantitative risk analysis. It is the process of hazard identification followed by numerical evaluation of incident consequences and frequencies, and their combination into an overall measure of risk when applied to the chemical process industry. It is particularly applied to episodic events. It differs from, but is related to, a probabilistic risk analysis (PRA), a quantitative tool used in the nuclear industry... 

Procedures for the elicitation of expert judgement in the probabilistic risk analysis on radioactive waste repositories An overview. 

Assumption 3 Probabilistic risk analysis based on event chains is the best way to assess and communicate safety and risk information. 

Ouchi, F. 2004. A literature review on the use of expert opinion in probabilistic risk analysis. World Bank Policy Research working paper 3201. 

In this study, qualitative aspects of ATHEANA were applied for the definition of complex accident scenarios involving human actions. The purpose of identifying deviations in accident sequences through a structured process is to verify whether the procedures are still appropriate even under these conditions. The findings, for the human failure event selected from the Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) in the previously performed Probabilistic Risk Analysis (PRA), were not related to EOPs. Thus, it was found that the major contributors to failure were rather related to the human-system interface and some crew characteristics. 

In this paper we have a special focus on health care applications. Decisions in health care are influenced by a growing complexity, better knowledge and higher demands from the patients, hospitals and society as a whole. Every day there are a lot of difficult decisions to be made in health care, and the need for decision-support is large. Risk assessments provide such decision support and recently we have seen several attempts to use such assessments in this sector (Marx Slonim 2003, Wreathall Nemeth 2004, Battles Kanki 2004, IHI 2008, Dhillon 2003). Our main interest here is the Probabilistic Risk Analysis (PRA)/Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA), which aims at presenting a comprehensive quantitative description of the risk associated with the activity. These analyses are used to analyse complex systems where there is a lack of data to accurately predict the future performance of the system, for example a complex surgical operation. 

Risk and safety may be best understood and communicated in ways other than probabilistic risk analysis. 

To estimate risk from NPP accident or event, probabilities and consequences from each event have to be evaluated. In Figure 22.31 shows the generic flowchart highlighting main components in risk assessment from an NPP. The risks from NPP are estimated by methodology called probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) (Lee and McCormick, 2011) which will be introduced later. 

Pate-Comell, M.E., and Fischbeck, P.S. 1990. Safety of the Thermal Protection System of the Space Shuttle Orbiter Quantitative Analysis and Organizational Factors. Phase I The Probabilistic Risk Analysis Model and Preliminary Observations. Research report to NASA, Kennedy Space Center. NASA, Washington, DC. 

Pate-Comell, M.E., and Dillon, R. 2001. Probabilistic risk analysis for the NASA space shuttle a brief history and current work. Reliability Engineering and Systems Safety 74, 345-52. 

A. Kortenhaus and H. Oumeraci, Probabilistic risk analysis as a basic tool for integrated coastal zone management, 6th Int. Conf. Hydrosci. Eng. (ICHE), Brisbane, Australia (2004). 

Authen, S., Holmberg, J.E. Reliability analysis of digital systems in a probabilistic risk analysis for nuclear power plants. Nuclear Engineering and Technology 44(5), 471-482 (2012)... 

The CPQRA methodology has evolved since the early 1980s from its roots in the nuclear, aerospace and electronics industries. The most extensive use of probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) has been in the nuclear industry. Procedures for PRA have been defined in the PRA Procedures Guide (NUREG, 1983) and the Probabilistic Safety Analysis Procedures Guide (NUREG, 1985). 

Yellman, T. W., and T. M. Murray (1995) Comment on The Meaning of Probability in Probabilistic Risk Analysis . Reliability Engineering and System Sajety, Vol. 49, pp. 201-205. 

Bedford T, Cooke R., 2001. Probabilistic Risk Analysis Foundations and Methods, University Press, Cambridge. 

Faghihi, K, Labeau, P.E., Maun, J.C., De Wilde, V. Vergnol, A. 2013. Probabilistic risk analysis of distributed generation curtailment in a saturated grid. In Proceedings of Esrel2013, Amsterdam (The Netherlands) Balkema. 

Further information on the probabilistic risk analysis can be obtained from ISO 13824 2009 on the general principles on risk assessment of systems involving structures, the Joint Committee on Structural Safety document JCSS (2008) or the monograph by Stewart Melchers (1997). 

Liao M., B.Y. R.G. (2012). Probabilistic risk analysis for aircraft structures with limited in-service damages. 28TH International Congress of The Aeronautical Sciences. 

Goyal, R.K., Probabilistic risk analysis Two case studies from the oil industry. 

There are many methods available in the published literature that can be used to perform various types of risk analysis in marine systems. These include fault-tree analysis (FTA), failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA), hazards and operability analysis (HAZOP), preliminary hazard analysis (PHA), interface safety analysis (ISA), probabilistic risk analysis (PRA), event-tree analysis (ETA), safety/review audits, and "what-if" analysis [38 2]. 

Probabilistic risk analysis. This is a quantitative methodology, and it was developed in the area of nuclear engineering to assess risk. Probabilistic risk analysis may use a combination of risk assessment methods. Additional information on probabilistic risk analysis is available in Bedford and Cooke [43]. 

Bedford, T., and R. Cooke. 2001. Probabilistic risk analysis Foundations and methods. Cambridge, U.K. Cambridge University Press. 

Real-world safety cases are sometimes based on deterministic arguments that particular failures cannot happen. But there are deep philosophical objections to such arguments, since no-one could realistically claim perfection for any stage in a development chain, let alone the whole of it. Increasingly - especially since [WASH-1400] - safety cases use probabilistic arguments - or Probabilistic Risk Analysis (PRA). This is paralleled by moves to educate the public in the concept of risk - e.g. [HSE 88]. 

Sumerling, T. j. (ed.) 1992. Dry run 3 A trial assessment of underground disposal of radioactive wastes based on probabilistic risk analysis Overview. UK DoE Report DOE/HMIP/RR92.039 (and 9 supporting volumes), HMID, London. 

Seismic margin assessment Seismic PRA Seismic probabilistic risk analysis Seismic probabilistic safety analysis Seismic PSA SMA... 

There exist essentially two approaches for quantifying the robustness of NPPs to seismic-induced ground motions, namely, seismic margin assessment (SMA) and seismic probabilistic safety analysis (seismic PSA). It should be noted that in the United States, the term probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) is used instead of PSA. 

If the leader of the analysis is an outsider it is essential that he or she is provided with sufficient funds, time and access to local technical experts to make sure that a thorough report Is written. The reference to qualitative assessments is important. RP 75 is not requiring that a Probabilistic Risk Analysis be carried out, which implies that neither need a Safety Case be prepared. 

Sadiq, R., Rajani, B., Kleiner, Y., 2004. Probabilistic risk analysis of corrosion associated failures in cast iron water mains. Reliability Engineering and System Safety 86 (1), 1—10. 

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