Quantitative policy analysis

Because doing quantitative policy analysis can be fun and professionally rewarding. 

Many people trained in the paradigms of science and engineering are likely to find It hard to take process-focused reasons for doing quantitative policy analysis very seriously. These reasons are, however, very real, and based at least on my own experience are often more Important In promoting the use of quantitative risk assessment and other policy analysis than are substance-focused reasons. 

Why 13 It "Good" to Characterize and Deal With Unoertalnty In Risk Assessment and In Other Quantitative Policy Analysis ... 

Some years ago I wrote an editorial in Sclenoe ( ) that began to list what I think are the characteristics of "good" policy analysis. Since then I have thought quite a bit more about this question. If the objective of good policy analysis is to inform the policy making process, then my current list of the attributes of "good" quantitative policy analysis reads as follows ... 

Morgem, M.G. Morris, S.C. Henrion, M. Amaral, D.A.L. Rlsh, H.R. "Technical Uncertainty in Quantitative Policy Analysis - The Sulfur Air Pollution Example", preprint Journal article, 1983, Department of Engineering 3Uid Public Policy, Carnegie-Mellon University, Pennsylvania. 

Morgan MG, Henrion M. 1990. Uncertainty a guide to dealing with uncertainty in quantitative risk and policy analysis. Cambridge (UK) Cambridge University Press. 

Lempert, R.J., Popper, S.W., andBankes, S.C. (2003). Shaping the Next One Hundred Years New Methods for Quantitative, Long-term Policy Analysis. RAND, Santa Monica, CA. http //www.rand.org/publications/MR/MR1626... 

Morgan, M. D., and Henrion, M. (1990). Uncertainty A Guide to Dealing with Uncertainty in Quantitative Risk and Policy Analysis, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. 

There is a clear difference in kind between the first three of these reasons, the next four, and the last. The first three are substance-focused because the specific substance and output of the analysis is of primary Importance. The next four are process-focused because the process of doing quantitative analysis may, in these cases, be more liq >ortant than the specific details or findings Involved. The eighth and final reason is analyst-focused. In my Judgment, many of the best quantitative policy analysts I know are in the business for this reason. Of course, if you ask them why they are in the business they will generally give you answers that sound like one or more of the substance-focused reasons that I have identified. 

Morgan, M.G. "The Role of Decision Analysis and Other Quantitative Tools In Environmental Policy Analysis A... 

Thanks in large part to work done in several of the programs in technology and policy, today modern policy analytic work is much improved, both in terms of the way in which problems are framed and the analytical tools that are employed, than was the case 30 years ago. For example, techniques such as decision analysis, the systematic characterization and analysis of uncertainty, and methods in quantitative risk analysis, that were pioneered in several of these programs, are now almost ubiquitous. 

The Dutch major hazards policy deals with the risks to those hving in the vicinity of major industrial hazards, such as chemical plants and LPG-fuelhng stations. The cornerstones of the Dutch major hazards policy are (i) quantitative risk analysis, (ii) individual and societal risk as risk-determining parameters and (iii) quantitative acceptability criteria for evaluating levels of individual and societal risk (Ale 1991, 2002 Bottelberghs 2000). Individual risk is defined as the probability of death of an average, unprotected person that is constantly present at a given location. 

Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA) has been in existence for many years particularly in the nuclear industry. Nowadays, QRA is widely used in aerospace, chemical process industries, petrochemical and manufacturing plants even if its detailed application can result very troublesome, time-consuming and expensive. In order to perform a quantitative risk analysis, reliability data are needed. These data have to reflect not only the design features of the employed components, but also the working environment and the adopted maintenance policy. Anyway, in major hazard plants, available reliability data are few and not well documented. As a consequence, the common way of proceeding is to make reference to similar systems/plants or to... 

Depending on the requirement of the safety analysts and the safety data available, either a qualitative or a quantitative safety analysis can be carried out to study the risks of a system in terms of the occurrence probability of each hazard and possible consequences. As described in Chapter 3, qualitative safety analysis is used to locate possible hazards and to identify proper precautions (design changes, administrative policies, maintenance strategies, operational procedures, etc.) that will reduce the frequencies or/and consequences of such hazards. 

Analysis of economic efficiency. Quantitative assessment of the economic efficiency of one or another ecological policy can only be determined by taking... 

The first of these two reasons (to get answers to a specifically formulated policy question) Is the one advanced by classical decision analysis. Ocasslonally one actually does encounter a problem In which a good piece of analysis provides an answer that can be directly Implemented without further consideration. However, such situations are so rare In practice that for the balance of this discussion I will focus exclusively on my second reason. ..namely, quantitative risk and other policy assessments are undertaken to provide Insight and to Inform the policy making process. 

Determining the impact assessment requires classification of each impact into one of these categories, characterization of the impact to establish some kind of relationship between the energy or materials input/output and a corresponding natural resource/human health/ecological impact, and finally the evaluation of the actual environmental effects. Many life cycle analyses admit that this last phase involves social, political, ethical, administrative, and financial judgments and that the quantitative analyses obtained in the characterization phase are only instruments by which to justify policy. A truly scientific life cycle analysis would end at the characterization phase, as many of the decisions made beyond that point are qualitative and subjective in nature. 

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