Lagging indicators

Slow-release capsules are also available. However, the results of a review of 10 studies that investigated the effectiveness of melatonin for treating jet lag indicated that time-release capsules are not effective for treating jet lag. 

Answer 4.10 (1) In October 1960 the temperature of the river was 64 °F and that of the closest wells was 50 °F (the wells were colder) (2) in January 1961 the river was 32 °F and the closest wells were 60 °F (the wells were warmer) (3) in March 1961 the river was 41 °F and the closest wells were 45 °F (the wells were slightly warmer) (4) in September 1961 the river was 77 °F and the closest wells were 50 °F (the wells were colder). Thus the temperature of the wells followed the temperature of the river, but with a time lag indicating the river recharged the wells. 

CCPS Process Safety Leading Lagging Indicators, December 2007... 

Companies seeking to develop a suite of lead and lag indicators may find it impossible to decide whether particular indicators are leading or lagging, and they may worry about whether they have an adequately balanced suite of indicators. 

But they should not worry The important point is not to develop a crisp definition to delineate the differences among the terms, but to capture and document that a failure of some sort occurred (Hopkins, 2009). Regardless of whether a particular metric is classified as a lagging indicator, a near miss, or a leading indicator, the purpose of the metric is to establish good indicators of conditions that could ultimately lead to a severe event. 

Figure 4.2 Incident Investigation to Identify Lagging Indicators (BP, 2008)...

Process safety—and the metrics to identify and track it—can be incorporated into a company s overall sustainability program. Adoption of improved process safety leading and lagging indicators that document improving process safety performance will be important in maintaining the organization s license to operate broadly as well as in a specific location. 

The final RCS chosen was that of management of change (MOC) as this is a key area where asset integrity can be affected by not executing MOC with the necessary rigor (see Table 5 on next page). The lagging indicator is set as the... 

New developed four-step P-stable method with minimal phase-lag (indicated as Method [g]). 

Figures 9.24-9.26 show, respectively, the cross-correlations, autocorrelations, and power spectrum of the detector signals for the 500-pm glass particles at = 2. In Fig. 9.24, the curves for the opposite detector pairs, 9/11 and 10/12, are of particular interest. They exhibit nearly zero values of correlation at zero time lag, indicating significant antisymmetric sloshing motion. The autocorrelations, shown in Fig. 9.25, reveal the existence of both near-periodic and random fluctuations. The power spectrum of the detector signals in Fig. 9.26 shows the dominant fluctuations of the solids motion in the bed. The dominant frequencies for the 500- and 705-mm glass particles at u,/umf = 1.5, 2, 3, and 4 are listed in Table 9.2. The...

Some metrics are leading indicators of success, while others are lagging indicators. Revenues, profits, and market share are common examples of lagging indicators and therefore are routinely overused. Leading indicators must also be developed to get at the drivers behind the financial success. 

Relevant Goals must relate to the performance challenge at hand. This includes a focus on leading indicators, which are harder to define and riskier to achieve than the more commonly reUed-on lagging indicators around financial performance (i.e. revenue, profits). 

Number of customer complaints can be used. If this indicator is used it is being assumed that everyone that is dissatisfied will complain and if they do not complain, they must be satisfied. These assumptions may or may not be valid depending on the products or services being offered. If the product or service being offered is very cjqiensive, these assumptions will probably be valid. If the product or service is inexpensive (for example, a toothbrush) what may happen is that some will complain, but many will just discard the item they are dissatisfied with and buy a different brand. As a result you may not realize that cnstomers are not satisfied nntil sales numbers drop, which is actually a lagging indicator. 

Nearly every book about construction safety starts with the statistics. Accident statistics are often one of the most common ways we talk about safety, and they have already appeared in this book in Chapter 2. In the UK, the Health and Safety Executive provides a complete annual statistical evaluation of the more hazardous industries, of which construction is one, readily available on its website. Often termed lagging indicators, accident statistics have long been one of the most readily available and understandable measures of safety, and are frequently used to make broad assessments of an industry or project s performance. 

KPIs can be either lagging or leading. A lagging indicator is like a rearview mirror an event has occurred. A leading indicator is one that suggests that an event may occur sometime in the future. 

Many events are both lagging and leading. For example, a control valve may have a small leak through its packing. This is a lagging indicator, and it has minor consequences, such as the need to... 

These indicators include well-established parameters such as lost time accidents, first-aid cases and recordable injuries. Figure 3.3 illustrates how the indicators are tracked over time. Lagging indicators are widely used because, assuming that there are enough events to ensure statistical significance they allow management to establish baselines, measure trends, and to compare results with other facilities and companies. 

Lagging indicators are used to generate KPIs. One oil company, for example, has set the following KPIs for itself (some are monthly, others quarterly, and the remainder annual). 

Lagging indicators by themselves do not provide much explicit guidance to management as to what needs to be done to keep improving safety. The events themselves have to be analyzed using some type of root cause analysis. Also, lagging indicators tend to react quite slowly to system changes. 

It is difficult to identify effective lagging indicators for use with process safety. The most obvious problem is that major PSIs do not occur frequently enough to develop a statistically significant trend such as that shown in Figure 2.3. If many facilities and companies pool their data it may be possible to that some trending results can be developed. However, such results are always open to doubt, not least because different organizations define terms differently. For example, the Baker report (Baker, 2007) provides a list of events that fall under the term fire. That list includes a fault in a motor control center. It is questionable as to how many organizations would call such an event a fire unless it resulted in actual flames. 

Near misses are often both lagging and leading indicators. For example a leak of hydrocarbon from a pump seal is a lagging indicator. An event occurred, and it had consequences, such as the need to fill out an environmental report form. But this event is also leading if a source of ignition had been present it could have caused a major fire. 

Some of the limitations to do with leading and lagging indicators have already been discussed. Further issues to consider are listed below. 

The effectiveness of both lagging and leading indicators depends heavily on the quality of incident reporting. For lagging indicators this is not a major problem. As already noted, indices such as OSHA recordables are widely understood and are consistent across industries. However, minor incidents are often not reported for the following reasons ... 

Following the fire and explosion at BP s Texas City refinery in Texas City, Texas, in the year 2005, the CSB conducted an investigation. One of the recommendations from that investigation called for the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the United Steel Workers (USW) to work together to develop an ANSI standard for leading and lagging indicators. The recommendation reads ... 

Work together to develop two new consensus American National Standards Institute (ANSI) standards. In the first standard, create performance indicators for process safety in the refinery and petrochemical industries. Ensure that the standard identifies leading and lagging indicators for nationwide public reporting as well as indicators for use at individual facilities. Include methods for the development and use of the performance indicators. 

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