Cumulative fossil fuel

For this base year (1994) the cumulative fossil fuel CO2 emission is 238 10 g CO2—C (Boden 2009) hence, 50 % of the CO2 added to the atmosphere is captured by the world s oceans. The total oceanic dissolved carbonate carbon (Table 2.9) corresponds to 0.028 g as carbon in seawater taking into account the volume of the world s oceans (Table 2.3). The experimentally estimated seawater standard carbonate carbon is 0.0244 g L seawater (Dickson et al. 2007). In the first 200 m of the ocean, the total deposited anthropogenic CO2 (Table 2.82 and assuming that 30% is within this layer) only contributes to 3% to dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC). Hence, it is very difficult to measure trends in the DIC because of manmade changes (see Fig. 2.96). 

It may be expected that cumulative fossil fuel demand linked to a nanocomposite life cyde will be a major determinant of the environmental impact [33] of nanocomposite life cyde. Apart from the case that crops are used as feedstock for polymer production, cumulative fossil fuel demand may even be the main determinant of the overall environmental burden [33]. 

The following terms are often used in the context of quantifying reserves and resources of fossil fuels the Estimated Ultimate Recovery (EUR), also called Ultimate Recoverable Resources (URR), is the sum of past cumulative production, proved reserves at the time of estimation and the possibly recoverable fraction of undiscovered resources. The remaining potential, i.e., the sum of reserves and resources, is the total amount of an energy source that is still to be recovered. The mid-depletion point is the point of time when approximately 50% of the EUR (at field, country or world level) has been produced. 

Superimposed on the C02 concentration measurements in Fig. 14.12 are the concentrations expected if 55.9% of the cumulative C02 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production remained in the atmosphere (Keeling et al., 1995). This percentage was chosen to match the atmospheric observations for the 20-year period between January 1, 1959, and January 1, 1979 the match between the two curves shows that... 

The cumulative production of CO2 from fossil fuel use and cement manufacturing (less than 2% of the total) is shown in Figure 9.5. This production should have resulted in an increased atmospheric CO2 concentration since the late 1800 s of about 90 ppmv. The observed cumulative increase for the period 1958-1984, however, coupled with a value of 290 ppmv in 1860 (e.g., Baes et al., 1976), indicates that only about one-half of this production has remained in the atmosphere the remainder has been stored in the oceans and other sinks. The parallelism of the cumulative production curve and the observed increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration curve for the Mauna Loa Observatory data was one of the first hints that the increase in atmospheric CO2 recorded at the Observatory was due to fossil fuel burning. 

Figure 9.5. Cumulative production of CO2 from fossil fuel burning and cement manufacturing, and cumulative observed increases in atmospheric CO2 from 1958-1984 at the Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii, U.S.A. Parallelism of curves suggests that atmospheric increase is due to fossil fuel burning. (After Baes et al., 1976.)...

To put this number in context, it amounts to half the estimated total cumulative carbon emissions from all fossil fuel use globally over the past 250 years If we build any significant fraction of this new capacity in a manner that does not enable capture of its co2 emissions we will be creating a carbon shadow that will darken the lives of those who follow us.26... 

Figures 6-16 through 6-19 show the massive amount of C02 sequestration that would be required, both annually and cumulatively, in order to use fossil fuels as hydrogen feedstocks while sharply reducing the amount of C02 released into the atmosphere. By 2050 the United States would need...

The fundamental problem in increasing the supply of low sulfur domestic fossil fuels to meet demand is indicated in Table III. The cumulative consumption of fossil fuels, both in direct use (e.g., transportation and space heating) and for the generation of electricity during the period 1960-2000, is compared with known recoverable and total estimated domestic reserves. Only for coal are we safely within our known recoverable reserves. On the other hand, for natural gas essentially the total estimated reserves in the ground, irrespective of the economics of recovery, will be depleted. 

Speculations on the future of the carbon cycle are even more vague. The burning of fossil fuels by civilized man takes advantage of the cumulative effect of past photosynthesis and works clearly in the direction of imbalance. The increase in atmospheric CO2 is the most immediate, and proportionally greatest consequence of this activity. It is not yet clear whether its accumulation will produce a greenhouse effect that will modify the future climate by temperature increase, or whether an increase in the mrth s albedo, by the accompanying production of smoke and dust, will lead to temperature decrease (Bach, 1976). 

The principal anthropogenic sources of CO 2 are the burning of fossil fuels and the production of cement. Total CO2 emissions can be estimated based on statistics of fossil fuel use and cement production (Andres et al., 1994). Average 1980 to 1989 fossil fuel combustion emissions have been estimated as 5.5 Gt(C) yr. During 1991, estimated total emissions were 6.2 Gt(C). Cumulative CO2 emissions since the preindustrial era have been estimated as approximately 230 Gt of carbon (Andres et al., 1994), which represents about 30% of the current amount of CO 2 in the atmosphere (Figure 21.11). 

M. King Hubbert s Resource Model (Hubbert, 1981), which I will call the HR Model, will be used to project fossil fuel production into the future. Projections of future fossil fuel production will be converted to CO2 emissions. There is a 3-month lag between fossil fuel production and use, which is negligible compared to the time frame of this study. In the simplest sense, the HR Model for an exhaustible resource shows the production curve will rise to some peak and them come back down, eventually to zero. The area under the production curve is the ultimate cumulative production of the resource. An aggressive rise in the future fossil fuel production curve will be chosen to set an upper limit for future atmospheric CO2 levels. 

For the purpose of developing the long-term projections in this paper, all fossil fuel resource data used will be that available in 1993 and projections shown in the figures start at 1990. Published data from 1990 to 2001 for anthropogenic CO2 emissions and atmospheric CO2 levels will be used to test the model. The cumulative production of world fossil fuel (oil, gas and coal) and a projection into the future are shown in Fig. 1. The projection was made using the HR Model (Hubbert, 1981) and is based on known, proved reserves only. The total area under the curve in Fig. 1 is47,330 quads (Barabba, 1989 Taylor, 1989 Kilgore, 1993 West, 1993). The curve in Fig. 1 will be used to develop the low estimate of fossil fuel production. 

The prognosis for the continued use of coal is good. Projections that the era of fossil fuels (gas, petroleum, and coal) will be almost over when the cumulative production of the fossil resources reaches 85% of their initial total reserves (Hubbert, 1969) may or may not have some merit. In fact. 

FIGURE 8.2 Carbon reservoirs and sinks. The resource base (the sum of reserves and resources) is used for fossil fuels [Rogner, 1997], The consumption box shows worldwide cumulative consumption of fossil fuels. The upper section of the atmosphere box shows the increase in CO2 since preindustrial times. The error bars are a rough summary of current knowledge and do not reflect systematic analysis of uncertainty. The upper bound for storage in aquifers is of the order 10,000 GtC. The oceanic capacity is based on an arbitrary upper limit to pH change of 0.3 surface ocean pH has already decreased by -0.1 due to anthropogenic CO2. 

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