Undiscovered resources

No method has been devised to estimate with complete accuracy the amount of cmde petroleum that ultimately will be produced from the world s conventional oil and gas fields. Degrees of uncertainty, therefore, should be attached to all such estimates. These uncertainties can be expressed in several ways, the most important of which is achieved by dividing a resource into various categories. Several petroleum resources classifications have been proposed, and a comprehensive discussion of them (1), as well as the definition used in the assessment of the undiscovered resources of the United States (2), have been provided. Seven commonly used categories of resources are given here. 

Undiscovered resources are estimated totally by geological reasoning no evidence through drilling is available. 

Perhaps the biggest contribution that technological advancement in petroleum production will make is bringing large volumes of unconventional petroleum resources, eg, heavy oil and tar sands, into a viable economic realm by lowering the unit cost of production. Compared to the inventory of conventional petroleum reserves and undiscovered resources, the physical inventories of such unconventional petroleum resources are extremely large for example, the Athabasca tar sands in Alberta, Canada, are estimated to contain 360 x 10 m (2250 x 10 bbl) of in-place petroleum (19). This volume is equivalent to the total inventory, ie, the combined cumulative production, reserves, and undiscovered resources, of world conventional cmde petroleum. In... 

Fuel Proven reserves Estimated undiscovered recoverable reserves Estimated identified and undiscovered resources... 

Mineral resources are broadly divided into discovered and the undiscovered categories. Features such as size, quality, characteristics and exact location of individual resources are matters of almost pure speculation for the latter. Undiscovered resources are unlikely to contribute much to the total supply in the immediate future. In the case of discovered resources estimates can be made, with an indication of the degree of reliability, of the timing and the future rates of production on a deposit-by-deposit basis. Using such estimation the occurrence and the likely rate of future availability can be combined in plots such as those shown in Figure 1.18 for discovered resources. Three situations are depicted. The first corresponds to future supply from sources that are reliable, the second to likely sources... 

Osadetz, K.G., Morrell, G.R., Dixon, J., Dietrich, J.R., Snowdon, I.R., Dallimore, S.R., Majorowicz, J.A. 2005. Beaufort-Mackenzie Basin A review of conventional and nonconventional (gas hydrate) petroleum reserves and undiscovered resources. Geological Survey of Canada, Bulletin 585. 

The following terms are often used in the context of quantifying reserves and resources of fossil fuels the Estimated Ultimate Recovery (EUR), also called Ultimate Recoverable Resources (URR), is the sum of past cumulative production, proved reserves at the time of estimation and the possibly recoverable fraction of undiscovered resources. The remaining potential, i.e., the sum of reserves and resources, is the total amount of an energy source that is still to be recovered. The mid-depletion point is the point of time when approximately 50% of the EUR (at field, country or world level) has been produced. 

The NEA/IAEA system splits resources into known resources and undiscovered resources . Known resources are further divided into Reasonably assured resources (RAR) and inferred resources (IR) . The categories are internally divided into various cost classes, according to suggested extraction costs as shown in Table 4.2. The definition of these classes also changed from time to time. The classes below 40/kg U , below 80/kg U and below 130/kg U are the most widely used. Undiscovered resources are further subdivided into two categories, namely prognosticated and speculative resources. Prognosticated resources are subdivided into... 

Reasonably assured resources below 80 per kg amount to 2.5 million tonnes of uranium, while RAR resources below 130 per kg amount to around 3.2 million tonnes. (This equals 1230 PJ and 1585 PJ, respectively, assuming that 1 tonne of uranium yields around 0.5 PJ (BGR, 2007).) IR below 80 per kg amount to roughly 1.1 million tonnes and below 130 per kg to approximately 1.4 million tonnes. Total RAR and IR sum up to almost 4.6 million tonnes (2280 EJ). Total undiscovered resources are estimated at 7.5 million tonnes. On top of these resources comes uranium from sources such as energy companies stocks, nuclear arms uranium, etc. 

There are three important items that counteract the guesswork applied to undiscovered resources (1) the actual discoveries of new coal reserves, (2) the development of improved mining technologies for already known coal reserves, and (3) estimates of the coal resource base that are derived from known resource properties where the whole of the resource is not explored. 

Resources Concentrations of coal in snch forms that economic extraction is currently or may become feasible. Coal resources broken down by identified and undiscovered resources. Identified coal resources are classified as demonstrated and inferred. Demonstrated resources are further broken down as measured and indicated. Undiscovered resources are broken down as hypothetical and speculative. 

Undiscovered Resources Relative potential to discover new occurences based on current geological knowledge base Med High Low Med High Med Med Low Low High Vied Low... 

Resource is a concentration of naturally occurring material in the earth s crust in such a form and amount that economic extraction is currently or potentially feasible. Resources whose location, grade, quality and quantity are known or estimated from geological evidence are identified resources. Resources whose existence is only postulated are undiscovered resources. 

The total world reserves are estimated at 100 milHon tormes, counted as the content of rare earth oxide REO. Of this quantity China has 43, the former Soviet Union 19, the United States 13 and Australia 5 million tonnes. This large reserve is satisfactory compared to the actual consumption, although this may increase to an extent that is difficult to anticipate. On the other hand, undiscovered resources are thought to be very large. In addition, a high proportion of the rare earth metals used in modem society may appear as a workable scrap. It is estimated that as much as 30% of the large quantity of RE metals in magnets wiU be recovered and reused. 

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