Prices, uranium

Domestic. Estimates of U.S. uranium resources for reasonably assured resources, estimated additional resources, and speculative resources at costs of 80, 130, and 260/kg of uranium are given in Table 1 (18). These estimates include only conventional uranium resources, which principally include sandstone deposits of the Colorado Plateaus, the Wyoming basins, and the Gulf Coastal Plain of Texas. Marine phosphorite deposits in central Elorida, the western United States, and other areas contain low grade uranium having 30—150 ppm U that can be recovered as a by-product from wet-process phosphoric acid. Because of relatively low uranium prices, on the order of 20.67/kg U (19), in situ leach and by-product plants accounted for 76% of total uranium production in 1992 (20). 

Beginning in approximately 1975, both IMG and Ereeport Minerals operated large uranium recovery plants in the United States using this technology. Several plants continue to mn but a number have been closed because of the depressed uranium prices that resulted when uranium from the former Soviet Union flooded Western markets. A relatively small plant is operated by Prayon in Belgium (40). TOPO is available from Cytec Industries Inc. as CYANEX 921 extractant. D2EHPA is available from Albright Wilson Ltd. and is also sold by Daihachi as DP-8R. 

Most uranium, however, is bought on long-term contracts, and between 2000 and 2006 medium- and long-term uranium prices under existing contracts only increased by 20%-45% (WEC, 2007). 

Another potentially vast resource is seawater. Uranium resources associated with the oceans are estimated at around 4000 million tonnes however, the uranium concentration in seawater is only around 0.003 ppm. The recovery of uranium from seawater is still subject to basic research. Considerable technological developments as well as significant improvements of economics (or drastic increases in uranium prices) are crucial for the commercial use of this resource, which is unlikely in the foreseeable future. As the energy demand for uranium extraction increases with lower concentrations, the net energy balance of the entire fuel cycle is also critical. 

There are two useful side products. The H2Sip6 is shipped as a 20-25 % aqueous solution for fluoridation of drinking water. Fluorosilicate salts find use in ceramics, pesticides, wood preservatives, and concrete hardeners. Uranium, which occurs in many phosphate rocks in the range of 0.005-0.03% of UsOg, can be extracted from the dilute phosphoric acid after the filtration step, but this is not a primary source of the radioactive substance. The extraction plants are expensive and can only be justified when uranium prices are high. 

About 20 percent of the nation s electricity is produced by nuclear power plants, which consume uranium. Low-cost uranium for nuclear reactors is currently very plentiful in the United States and elsewhere in the world. Very few nuclear reactors are being built these days, so little exploration for uranium has occurred in recent decades. However, a nuclear revival, whether for electricity or hydrogen, would spur uranium prospecting and might cause uranium prices to escalate in the long term. 

Hydrogen produced by a thermochemical nuclear process is sensitive to the price of uranium, as well as the efficiency of the process (Table 6.9). A 10% increase in efficiency at 2005 uranium prices of... 

Table 6.9. Thermochemical nuclear uranium price and efficiency sensitvity on hydrogen production costs ( /kg)...

Uranium price ( /MBtu) Default efficiency 10% higher efficiency 10% lower efficiency... 

Figure 6.7. Thennochemical nuclear sensitivity to uranium prices.

The current availability of uranium is generally specified in terms of availability at a specified price. A 1983 DOE estimate for the United States was 433,400 t of U at 80/kgU, corresponding to the sum of the probable potential (251,500 t), possible potential (98,800 t), and speculative potential (83,100 t) resources at 260/kg U, the corresponding values were 725,700-1-323,800-1-250,700 = 1,300,200 t of U. Uranium prices declined from nearly 110/kg in 1980 to about 40/kg by mid-1984 and remained at about this level during the next 4 years. Needless to say, the current availability in the United States and elsewhere of uranium resources even at the highest prices is smaller by mat r orders of magnitude than the ultimately available resources. A similar remark applies to resources outside of the United States. Thus, the total Western world lesouices (not including the centrally planned economies) were estimated in 1987 to exceed the U.S. resources by factors of about two to four. In 1981, the United States was the world s dominant nraninm producer, with 33.5% of total Western production by 1986, the U.S. share had declined to 14.3%, while Canada had become the dominant producer with 31.6% of total production. In 1986, South African (at 12.5%) and Australian (at 11.2%) production followed U.S. production closely. 

A strong market reaction to the perception that secondary supplies are beginning to run out and that primary production needed to rise sharply to fill more of the gap still evident with reactor requirements. This started in 2003 with a strong upward movement in world uranium prices and continued into 2007 (the spot market price rose by a factor of 10 between 2003 and mid-2007). 

Uranium prices have fluctuated significantly over the last several years. From 2003 to 2006, uranium prices averaged about 20/pound of UaOg ( 23.60/pound of uranium). The spot price market peaked at nearly 90/pound early in 2007, with the average spot price in the 2012-2013 being in the 50/pound (UjOg) range. 

Due to the current low costs of natural uranium and uranium enrichment, the use of uranium dioxide fuel with postponed reprocessing and spent fuel storage on the nuclear power plant site, are economically preferable for SVBR-75/100 at the moment. The duration of the benefits of this fuel cycle option depends on the available uranium resources and nuclear power deployment scale. In any case, the existing uranium resources are sufficient to achieve the realistic scenario of nuclear power development until the year 2050. The costs of natural gas could be expected to increase more intensively than the costs of natural uranium. This will ensure the NPP competitiveness even with a considerable increase in uranium prices, because the structure of electricity cost is different for NPPs and fossil-fuelled heat power plants. 

HWRs with a good neutron economy (such as the Swedish BHWRs) have very low fuel cycle costs. Pig, 10 shows the capitalized cost advantages earning from the fuel cycle for BHWRs optimized for natural uranium compared to LWRs. It will be seen that this Is substantially Independent of reactor output, but quite strongly dependent on uranium price, normalized fabrication costs per kg and reprocessing costs per kg. 

On the other hand, as discussed later, uranium prices and plutonium credits are expected to rise over the life of the plant whilst fabrication costs per kg and reprocessing costs per kg should fall as a result of technical progress and the increasing scale of plants. The latter feature affects the cost of natural uranium plants with their relatively low burn-up (9000-10,000 MWd/tU) more than enriched reactors such as LWRs. If account of all these factors is taken the minimum economic size of HWRs is substantially reduced and HWRs which have costs equal to those of LWRs at the beginning of their life reach substantially lower costs than LWRs at the end of their life (and integrated over the whole life) as illustrated in Fig. 11,... 

Existing known reserves are sufficient for the next half century s projected use. More wiU undoubtedly be discovered, as the element is omnipresent in the earth s crust (2—3 parts per million) and existing known ore bodies are the fruit of the last great expansion of nuclear power in the 1970—80s. In practice, they were far more than sufficient to fuel what was actually built, leading to a slump in uranium prices, which lasted until 2002. The recent spike in uranium spot prices has led, as one would expect, to a revival of exploration and the first steps in the development of new mines. 

Offers a tool for nuclear power sector to protect against potential rises in uranium prices, hy providing MOX and recycled UOX (uranium oxide) fuel 5, whose production cost is independent of uranium prices and enrichment costs. ... 

When the uranium price was about 40/lb, uranium recovery was attractive. However, with the use of nuclear power in a holding pattern, the price of uranium in the 1980s slipped below 20/lb. Only a few companies with long-term supply contracts were still in operation by 1990, and no new plants are likely until the uranium price rises substantially. 

For an area like Western Europe with only limited uranium resources in the price range below 10/lb uranium oxide, it is important to study the total uranium requirements for the nuclear programs under consideration in relation to the available resources, especially since a significant increase in uranium prices due to a shortage of uranium might be very important for the competitive position between nuclear and fossil fueled power stations. 

Because of the decreasing growth rate in the assumed total demand forecast as shown in Table IV, the part of the fuel cycle expenditures attributed to the increase in inventories tends to decrease as a function of time, which explains the decreasing trend in fuel cycle expenditures as a function of time for all programs in later years even if uranium prices remain constant (bottom of shaded area). If uranium prices increase this decreasing trend will be offset by the increase in fuel cycle expenditures for LWR-only programs. 

Fig. 4. Annual system fuel cycle expenditures for the different nuclear programs given in Table III. Bottom of shaded areas constant uranium prices, top of shaded areas increasing uranium prices.

The reduction in fuel cycle costs and uranium requirements in con-verter/breeder reactors, resulting in a lower sensitivity to uranium price increases achieved by the introduction of the fast or thermal breeders, both initially fuelled with Pu, depends significantly on the following two ratios ... 

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