Technological uncertainty

Design Features and Technology Uncertainties for the Next Generation Nuclear Plant, INEEL/EXT-04-01816, Independent Technology Review Group, June 30, 2004. 

If a breakthrough occurs with the permanent magnets, ceramic conductor or magnesium diboride technology, some, of the initial investment in the niobium metallic magnet facility may be wasted. This type of risks must be accepted. If we wait until there is no technological uncertainty, the reactors will never be built. 

Technological Uncertainty. To the extent that an emerging technology departs from tested and proven techniques and the increases sought in technological capability rise, R D becomes increasingly risky. For example, there is always the prospect that certain technological advances required to operationalize a new idea for a product or process innovation 1) may never be made or 2) may turn out to be excessively costly because of technical problems. 

Interestingly, none of the studies reviewed directly addressed the criteria for government Intervention (or support of transfer activities) presented at the outset of this paper. The "ideal" policy assessment, then, would first develop data on the existence and extent of technological uncertainty, market uncertainty, appropriability, and "national need," and then assess alternative government actions, if any such actions are warranted, using one of the four types of methodologies we just described. 

Characterize and deal with all scientific or technological uncertainties as completely and as explicitly as possible. 

Function New idea. 1. Eliminate Technological uncertainty. 2. Estimate diffusion cost C (X) with high variance G C(X). 1. Reduce market and regulatory uncertainties. 2. Determine introduction cost C (X ) and thereby reduce cost variance from G1 to Gd (C(X) ). Market, expand, and compete profitably. Expand profitably but more slowly. Market and compete profitably. 

Morgan, M. G. Technological Uncertainty in Policy Analysis Final Report to the National Science Foundation on Grant PRA-791 3070 Carnegie Mellon University Pittsburgh, PA, 1982. 

Oh J, Rhee SK (2008) The inhuence of supplier capabilities and technology uncertainty on manufacturer-supplier collaboration a study of the Korean automotive industry. Int J Oper Prod Manag 28(6) 490-517... 

Early supplier involvement (ESI) as part of CE and CE has received much attention from researchers and practitioners at the end of the 90s and early 2000s. A literature review by Mclvor and Humphreys [16] revealed that despite the potential benefits of ESI negative impact of various factors might exist, like technology uncertainty, low levels of tmst between the buyer and supplier, poor communication and co-ordination mechanisms. These factors are similar to those mentioned often also in the context of CE and CE. Development and monitoring of collaborative relationships are critical for preventing problems with supplier performance [17]. 

Is it ensured that technological uncertainties relating to SHE are adequately identified and evaluated That back-up solutions are provided if the new technologies are found unfeasible ... 

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