Rubber forecasts

Acrylic rubbers, as is the case for most specialty elastomers, are characterized by higher price and smaller consumption compared to general-purpose mbbers. The total mbber consumption ia 1991 was forecast (55) at 15.7 million t worldwide with a 66% share for synthetic elastomers (10.4 x 10 t). Acryhc elastomers consumption, as a minor amount of the total synthetic mbbers consumption, can hardly be estimated. As a first approximation, the ACM consumption is estimated to be 7000 t distributed among the United States, Western Europe, and Japan/Far East, where automotive production is significantly present. 

Table 4. Long-Term Rubber Consumption Forecast by Area, 10 t...

The margins are partly supported by a sustainable share of imports, allowing for import parity pricing. In 2003, approximately 21 percent of China s total chemicals consumption was covered by net imports, mainly commodities. For example, at least half of the consumption of synthetic rubber (69%), plastics (55%), and organic chemicals (50%) was met by net imports. Even at production growth forecasts of 9.6 percent p.a., Chinese capacity levels will not meet demand in the foreseeable future and the country is expected to remain a chemicals net importer beyond 2020. 

The use of aniline in rubber chemicals will closely track the Gross Domestic Product growth in the United States, while its use in agricultural chemicals is expected to slowly decline. Aniline-based dyes and pigments are forecast to have little growth255. 

TABLE 16.2 Worldwide Rubber Consumption Forecast, 2008 (Metric Tons)... 

The 2003 synthetic rubber capacity by type is presented in Table 16.1, and Table 16.2 lists the worldwide rubber consumption forecast by type for 2008. 

Prime urethane underlay continues to grow at the expense of waffle sponge rubber and fiber pad. Since 1977 prime urethane underlay has grown from 19% of shipments to 3 +% while rubber sponge has declined from 3 +% to 22%. This erosion of rubber s position is expected to continue during the forecast period. 

While currently most plastic and rubber wastes are still disposed of in landfills, it is forecast that in the next few years the significance of other alternatives will have to be enhanced, as the number of landfill sites progressively decreases in many countries. There will have to be an increase in both mechanical and feedstock recycling and, when they are not feasible, energy recovery may be the most suitable option. 

This new theory of the non-equilibrium thermodynamics of multiphase polymer systems offers a better explanation of the conductivity breakthrough in polymer blends than the percolation theory, and the mesoscopic metal concept explains conductivity on the molecular level better than the exciton model based on semiconductors. It can also be used to explain other complex phenomena, such as the improvement in the impact strength of polymers due to dispersion of rubber particles, the increase in the viscosity of filled systems, or the formation of gels in colloids or microemulsions. It is thus possible to draw valuable conclusions and make forecasts for the industrial application of such systems. 

Sinopec, China s state-owned petrochemical and polymer company, is increasing synthetic rubber capacity across the board, including butyls, SBRs, nitrile, and chloroprene. Sinopec is starting polyiso-prene and EPR production, although the company did not produce polyisoprene or EPR prior to 1999. Total synthetic rubber capacity will be 1.15 million metric tons/y by 2000. China s synthetic rubber consumption is forecast by the company to be almost 7 million metric tons/y in 2000. ... 

Now the world elastomeric market consists of the natural rubber (NR) -40% and S5mthetic rubbers - 60%. According to forecasts of experts the tendency of increase in a share of NR is observed. It is supposed that by 2015-2020 its share will make 50%. For the purpose of expansion of a scope of natural mbber manufacturing of NR with the content of chlorine from 0.5 to 15% is of interest since it is known that such content of halogen doesn t worsen flexural properties of rubber. 

Forecasting the future trend of any commodity in terms of availability, production, and price is somewhat hazardous, and for natural rubber is probably more hazardous than most. Some conditions exist, however, that would indicate natural rubber will be around for some time at reasonable prices. Although tire production in the United States may be on a plateau, the increasing industrialization of the Third World countries keeps world demand for elastomers rising and at a faster rate than natural production. Such countries, at least in the short term, increase production of trucks rather than passenger automobiles and truck tires require more natural rubber than do passenger tires. 

Kaolin clay sells for relatively low prices compared to other rubber raw materials. Kaolinite is one of the most abundant minerals found in the earth s crust. There are many suppliers and potential suppliers of kaolin clay to meet the rubber industry s present and future needs, with these clay suppliers having only slim profit margins. Therefore, few, if any, supply shortages are forecast. 

For the world, carbon disulfide is forecast to grow about 1.5% annually for use in rubber chemicals. Typically about 100 million pounds of carbon disulfide is used giobally by the rubber industry each year. 

The world demands for thermoplastic elastomers are forecast to expand by 7.5% per year to 2.6 million metric tons in 2006. TPEs will continue to find the majority of their applications as replacements for natural and synthetic rubbers, as well as rigid thermoplastics and metals. The global TPE industry will remain heavily concentrated in the USA, Western Europe and Japan, particularly for specialty materials, such as polyester elastomers. Prom the two trends of application of polyester elastomers as engineering plastics and functional materials, the second one is prioritized. In terms of engineering applications, the PEE production will remain closely related to the motor vehicle industry, sporting goods, hoses, and small household goods. 

Weathering Resistance Prediction of service life, although one of the most important areas of testing, is probably the most uncertain. Cable jackets of synthetic rubber used in the Distant Early Warning (DEW) Line in Northern Canada in the 1950s were forecast to have a 20-year lifetime. Most are stiU in service. Similar synthetic rubber wire coverings were used at that time for automotive wire harness when... 

International Institute of Synthetic Rubber Producers. Forecasts issued Autumn 1979 (global and CPEC data) February 1980 (USA data). 

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