Emergency evacuation modeling

Emergency Evacuation Modeling - A study of the mechanisms, locations and time estimates to complete an effective removal of all personnel from an immediately endangered location or facility. 

Emergency Evacuation Modeling— A study of the mechanisms, locations, and time estimates to complete an effective removal of all personnel from an immediately endangered location or facility. Fatality Accident Rates (FAR) or Potential Loss of Life (PLL)—A mathematical estimation of the level of fatalities that may occur at a location or facility due to the nature of work being performed and protection measures provided. It may be calculated at an annual rate or for the life of the project. 

A Monte-Carlo solution of the evacuation model provides in addition a sample of actual trajectories of the evacuees. This information coupled with an accident analysis which provides the spatial and temporal distribution of the extreme phenomenon following an accident, determines a sample of the actual doses received by the evacuees. Both the average dose and the actual distribution of doses can be used as measures in evaluating alternative emergency response strategies. 

Georgiadou, P.S., Papazoglou, LA., Kiranoudis, C.T. and Markatos, N.C. (2007). Modeling emergency evacuation for major hazard industrial sites. Reliability Engineering System Safety, 92(10), pp. 1388-1402. 

One application of this model is in the area of emergency evacuation of a facility (such as a building or subway station). The source node represents the location of workers in the facihty and the sink node represents a safety area. The arcs can correspond to the various links from one part of the facility to another (stairways, corridors, etc.) and the arc capacity indicates the maximum number of people who could traverse a link per unit time. The maximum flow represents the maximum rate at which people could be evacuated from the facility (see Chalmet et al. 1982 for a more elaborate model). 

EMERGENT EVACUATION SYSTEM OF TERMINAL AND THURLEY MODEL... 

This paper at first describes the behavioral mode characteristics of individuals in emergent evacuation process. By combining with Thurley model, analysis is conducted for its influence on evacuation effects in stages. Based on this, corresponding suggestions and measures are put forward. The suggestions provide valuable reference to enhance evacuation efficiency, lower evacuation risk in... 

In addition to effective smoke control, sufficient circulation capacity is needed to ensnre a prompt evacuation of the station. Many concepts and computer models have been developed for emergency evacuation applications. Using the hydranlic flow concept, hand calculation of exiting time is also possible. 

To estimate tlie potential impact on tlie public or tlie environment of accidents of different types, the likely emergency zone must be studied. For example, a liazardous gas leak, fire, or explosion may cause a toxic cloud to spread over a great distance. The minimum affected area, and tlius the area to be evacuated, should be estimated on the basis of an atmospheric dispersion model. Various models can be used tlie more difficult models produce more realistic results, but tlie sunpler and faster models may provide adequate data for planning purposes. A more thorougli discussion of atmospheric di rsion is presented in Part 111 - Healtli Risk Assessment. 

Abstract This chapter presents a stochastic optimization model for disaster management planning. In particular, the focus is on the integrated decisions about the distribution of relief supplies and evacuation operations. The proposed decisionmaking approach recommends the best relief distribution centers to use as storage locations and determines their optimal inventory levels. The model also incorporates the priorities for the evacuation of particular communities, as well as specific disaster scenarios with estimates of the transportation needs and demand for aid. A case study is presented to determine the distribution of aid for a flood emergency in Thailand that uses a flood hazard map. 

Development of better models to guide protective action decision making in emergencies (i.e., choosing between evacuation and sheltering-in-place), and other aspects of incident management ... 

The long-term aim is for the rail terminal designers to be able to trial new terminal designs on the computer, modeling the efficiency of evacuation procedures with or without the new emergency signage system in place. This will provide not... 

Licensees are required to develop evacuation time estimates for the plume-exposure Emergency Planning Zone (10-mile radius). These estimates are based on various models and must be used with caution. These models have not been validated against evacuations and are subject to large uncertainties. 

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