Evacuation modeling

Emergency Evacuation Modeling - A study of the mechanisms, locations and time estimates to complete an effective removal of all personnel from an immediately endangered location or facility. 

Fahy, R. F. 1 995. EXIT89 An Evacuation Model for Lfigh-Rise Buildings - Recent Enhancements and Example Applications International Conference of Fire Research and Engineering. Society of Fire Protection Engineers, Boston, MA. 

A Monte-Carlo solution of the evacuation model provides in addition a sample of actual trajectories of the evacuees. This information coupled with an accident analysis which provides the spatial and temporal distribution of the extreme phenomenon following an accident, determines a sample of the actual doses received by the evacuees. Both the average dose and the actual distribution of doses can be used as measures in evaluating alternative emergency response strategies. 

While the micro-simulation evacuation models have included many features on hmnan hehaviour and decision making, hand calculation using the hydranhc flow model is stiU a valuable tool for safety assessment. This method is especially convenient for a large nmn-ber of scenarios or alternative design options and has been included as part of the guidelines on fixed guideway and passenger rail systems of the National Fire Protection Association (NFPA) in NFPA 130 (NFPA 2007). 

Several studies have focused on methods to improve the planning and operational aspects of the evacuation process to maximize the utility of the existing transportation network (Han et al. 2006). Stepanov and Smith (2009) also review a series of evacuation models and suggest that modeling techniques can be grouped by computational techniques into analytical and simulation techniques. One class uses analytical optimization methods to offer routing policies, and then these are... 

Nuclear studies consider evasive actions such as shelter and evacuation. Appendix E of the PRA Procedures Guide (NUREG, 1983) provides a useful overview of nuclear evacuation models. Section 4.3 discusses the maximum allowable levels of thermal exposure from flares, which would indicate when a shelter or a shield to block heat radiation is necessary. 

Emergency Evacuation Modeling— A study of the mechanisms, locations, and time estimates to complete an effective removal of all personnel from an immediately endangered location or facility. Fatality Accident Rates (FAR) or Potential Loss of Life (PLL)—A mathematical estimation of the level of fatalities that may occur at a location or facility due to the nature of work being performed and protection measures provided. It may be calculated at an annual rate or for the life of the project. 

Frdre, S., Aubrecht, C., Wesgscheidei S. 2013. Ad vancing tsunami risk assessment by improving spatio-temporal population exposure and evacuation modeling, Natural Hazards, 68, 1311 1324. 

EVACS, (Japan) Takahashi, K. Tanaka, T. Kose, S. Evacuation model for determining optimal design [24]... 

To estimate tlie potential iiupaet on tlie publie or tlie environment of aeeidents of different types, the likely emergeney zone must be studied. For example, a liazardous gas leak, fire, or explosion may eause a toxie cloud to spread over a great distance. The minimum atmospheric dispersion model. Vtirious models can be used tlie more difficult models produce more realistic results, but tlie simpler and faster models may provide adequate data for planning purposes. A more tliorough discussion of atmospheric dispersion is presented in Part 111 - Healtli Risk Assessment. 

Other models may be used to consider tlie effects of escape or evacuation, sheltering, protective equipment, or otlier factors (e.g., water contamination) tliat may be considered in a risk study. 

Example Using Penberthy Model U Ejector for Evacuation Time... 

U MODEL EVACUATION TIME (in minutes per 100 cu ft at 100 PSIG Operating Steam Pressure)... 

To build a molecular model of the equilibrium between a liquid and its vapor we first suppose that the liquid is introduced into an evacuated closed container. Vapor forms as molecules leave the surface of the liquid. Most evaporation takes place from the surface of the liquid because the molecules there are least strongly bound to their neighbors and can escape more easily than those in the bulk. Howevei as the number of molecules in the vapor increases, more of them become available to strike the surface of the liquid, stick to it, and become part of the liquid again. Eventually, the number of molecules returning to the liquid each second matches the number escaping (Fig. 8.2). The vapor is now condensing as fast as the liquid is vaporizing, and so the equilibrium is dynamic in the sense introduced in Section 7.11 ... 

The gas to be tested may be drawn or forced at the rate of a few cubic centimeters per minute through the test chamber, which in present models has a volume of about 4 ml., or it may be introduced after evacuating the test chamber. The instrument indicates correctly the magnetic susceptibility of the gas in the test chamber within a few seconds the main delay in reading the instrument is caused by the time required to introduce the gas. 

Figure 4 presents correlation between the basic and acid activities obtained with the model reaction and the surface area of 1230 cm 1 band of adsorbed CO2 species after evacuation at RT under vacuum (Figure 4a) and the quantity of Bronsted acid sites able to retain DMP at 150°C respectively (Figure 4b). 

As the first Czechoslovak post-WW-II generation of means for personal decontamination at the lowest tactical level, i.e., at the individual first-aid level, we considered the two-solution system produced in Czechoslovakia according to the Soviet-originated model IPP-51. It was introduced under the acronym IPB-60 into the Czechoslovak Army, and under more simple modification in the first aid kit OZB into the Czechoslovak Civil Defence in the early 1960s. The same system was used for the secondary decontamination at the facilities of the medical evacuation chain (PCHB-60-P and PCHP-60-P). This system was based... 

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