Delphi method

The Delphi Method was developed in 1950 at the RAND Corporation as a long-term forecasting tool (Delbecq et al., 1975). It uses a scientifically conducted anonymous survey of key experts who are knowledgeable about the item being forecasted. 

A panel cf experts The Panel members can be geographically displaced in multiple countries. They remain anonymous throughout the process. The panel members are generally top management people with different background and expertise. The selection of expert panel is key to the success of the Delphi Method. 

A facilitator Only the facilitator interacts directly with the panel members, obtains the individual responses, and presents a statistical summary of the responses to the group. 

Step 1 The facilitator sends a survey to the panel members asking for their expert opinions on the forecast. 

Step 2 The panel s responses are analyzed by the facilitator, who then prepares a statistical summary of the forecast values, for example, the median value and the two quartiles (75th and 25th percentile values). 

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Reporting for Reg. Guide 1.16 (later LER) Comprehensive applicatio Delphi method to database develt... 

Delphi-method, where an expert panel conducts a systematic analysis of the different countries. 

Dalkey, N.C. The Delphi Method An Experimental Study of Group Opinion Rand Corporation Santa Monica, California, 1969. 

Subjective forecasting models are based on judgement and experience. Several techniques exist that attempt to make use of the expert s knowledge to develop a forecast. These techniques include the Delphi method, jury of executives, and the use of sales force intelligence to develop the forecast. 

Linstone, H.A., Turoff, M., 1978. The Delphi Method—Techniques and Applications. Addison-Wesley Publishing Company, Massachusetts Reading, MA. 

Delphi method is Suitable for qualitative analysis while AHP is Suitable for quantitative analysis. By compounding these two kinds methods advantages, we use Delphi-AHP methods to identify the key indices of urban resource and environment system and give the weight of every index. Then, we calculate the collected date set and get the evaluate result by using K-means algorithm. 

Delphi method and AHP method are comprehensively applied to gain the weight of index which are... 

Contrary to FTF meetings and NGT, under the third method, the Delphi method (also referred to as Delphi process), the group members do not have to be all in the same location, even though they continue to communicate with eaeh other. Developed by Norman Dalkey and his colleagues at the RAND Corporation in the... 

The drawbacks of the Delphi method are thought to lie between the FTF and the NGT. It is not as vulnerable to the inhibitory influences because the group members are anonymous, and the process allows for minority views to have equal voice as the majority. This anonymity of group members may also contribute to avoidance... 

The discussions cover the five main techniques employed in forecasting, ranging from unstructured FTF meetiugs to structured NGT, from statistical aggregation to the Delphi method and to prediction markets. They are, by all means, not exhaustive h° The discussiou of these five techniques does not intend to champion one technique over the others, but iustead is intended to inform the reader of the possibilities with the hope that further discussion can ensue on improving this third branch of a regulatory regime. 

Harold A., Linsone and Murray Turoff, (1975). The Delphi Method Techniques and Applications. 1975. A full-book PDF version is available on-line http //www.is.njit.edu/pubs/delphibook/index.html (last visited 2005-05-16). 

Delphi method Technique based on subjective expert opinion gathered through several structured anonymous rounds of data collection. The objective is to capture the advantages of multiple experts in a committee, while minimizing the effects of social pressures to agree with the majority, ego pressure, and influence of a dominant individual. 

NBC (Bollapragada et al., 2008) National Broadcasting Company used a qualitative approach to predict advertising demand for pricing and revenue projections. It used a combination of Delphi method and "grassroots" approach that used customer surveys by sales personnel. 

Reference values, expxrt interviews, delphi methods, workshops... 

Expert opinion (including scenario planning and the Delphi method)... 

The Delphi method is a research technique particularly suitable when there is an incomplete understanding of the subject under consideration, as is the case of externalities in occupational safety (Okoli Pawlowski, 2004 Ramos et al., 2012). Considering the scarcity of studies on externalities in OHS, an application of the Delphi method has been made to the issue of externalities. In the presented paper, the research methodology that has been followed and the main results that have been obtained are presented and discussed. 

The Delphi method allows gathering the views of the considered participants, typically a panel of experts on the study domain. This process is carried out by conducting a series of questionnaires, or rounds, on a specific topic or subject (Okoli Pawlowski, 2004 Ramos et al., 2012). 

The Delphi method is a research technique suitable when there is an incomplete knowledge on the subject under consideration, as is the case of externalities in OHS. 

Okoli, C. Pawlowski, S. D. 2004. The Delphi method as a research tool an example, design considerations and applications. Information Management 42, 15-29. 

Skulmoski, J. G., Hartman, T. K, Krahn, J. 2007. The Delphi Method for Graduate Research. Journal of Information Technology Education, volume 6. 

Gurrera, R.J., Caroff, S.N., Cohen, A. et ai (2011) An international consensus study of neuroleptic malignant syndrome diagnostic criteria using the Delphi method. Journal of Clinical Psychiatry 72 (9), 1222-1228. 

Trucco et al. 2008 Uses BBNs to model the influence of MOFs on error events (both technical and human) BBN relationships via expert judgement, elicitation with recursive (e.g. Delphi) method. MOFA... 

Jafari, A., Jafarian, M., Zareei, A. Zaerpour, E 2008. Using fuzzy Delphi method in maintenance strategy selection problem. Journal of Uncertain Systems 2 289-298. 

Furthermore, the risk acceptability of each /-element of ground water source has been determined in relation to y-hazard by comparing the calculated value of risk with the characteristic of particular interval of risk point values. The characteristic of risk point intervals has been acquired through a complete Delphi method with one iteration (Dalkey Helmer 1963). 

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