Long-term forecasts

The values of raw materials and products can be found in trade journals such as Chemical Marketing Reporter (published by Schnell Publishing Company), European Chemical News and Asian Chemical News (published by Reed Business Information). However, the values reported in such sources will be subject to short-term fluctuations, and long-term forecasts will be required for investment analysis. 

Solomon, S and D. L. Albritton, Time-Dependent Ozone Depletion Potentials for Short- and Long-Term Forecasts, Nature, 357, 33-37 (1992). 

This type of model is well suited for fitting and smoothing as well as for forecasting one step or one period ahead. Long-term forecasts show only constant series, a constant trend or a constant seasonality of the series. 

Balabanov IP, Kvirkeliya BD, Ostrovsky AB (1981) Recent history of the formation of the engineering-geological conditions and long-term forecast of the coastal zone evolution of the Pitzunda Peninsula. Metsniereba, Tbilisi, Georgia (in Russian)... 

Solomon S, Albritton DL. 1992. Time-dependant ozone depletion potentials for short-and long-term forecasts. Nature (London) 357(63) 33-37. 

In an unrelated study, Stewart estimated the market risk premium by comparing Standard and Poor s 500 stocks with long-term (20-year) U.S. Treasury bonds from 1925 to 1989 (409). He found that the risk premium was only 5.8 percent over the period. This would imply a risk premium over the Treasury bill rate (adjusted for long-term forecasts) of just 7.0 percent. 

Average of long-term forecasts prepared by the US Department of Energy and the International Energy Workshop in 1981,1985, 1989, and 1997, respectively. 

The record of chemical components in climate (i. e., the development of a chemical climatology) is of great importance for societies. Long-term forecast of the chemical climate is extremely important due to the close interaction between the physical and chemical system (climate change) and due to the fact that any feedback response to establish abatement strategies needs many years and even decades to take effect. Climate modelers have lately realized that only a better description of chemical processes will lead to greater soundness regarding important physical... 

Shown in the following tables is a long-term forecast made by the British Chemical Industry Association ... 

Push-based strategy in which production and distribution decisions are based on long-term forecasted demand. In this case, it takes much longer to the company to react to the changing marketplace. As the strategy relies on forecasts, it is most of the time difficult to match supply and demand. 

For a hybrid Push-Pull strategy, a second important decision is to define where to locate the Push-Pull boundary in the supply chain. Harrison (2003) states that the Push part is applied to the portion of the supply chain where demand uncertainty is relatively small, and thus, managing this portion based on long-term forecast is appropriate. On the other hand, the Pull part is applied to the portiOTi of the supply chain where uncertainty is high, and hence, it is important to manage this part based on realized demand. One illustrative example is Dell, who implemented the Push-Pull strategy by locating the boundary at the assembly point. 

Chatfield (2004) pointed out that it is also important to realize that no single method is universally applicable. Rather, the analyst must choose the procedure that is most appropriate for a given set of conditions. Forecasts are conditional statements about the future based on specific assumptions, and thus, forecasts are not sacred and the analyst should always be prepared to modify them as necessary in the light of any external information. For long-term forecasting, it can be helpful to produce a range of forecasts based on different sets of assumptions, so that, alternative scenarios can be explored. 

Linear regression and econometric methods are used to plan business volume for long term forecast (12 months to 5 years). 

Performance of planners and forecast are tied to compensation and rewards. Senior management understands, support and value demand planning function. Forecast tools are in place for both short and long term forecast, and are used to automate statistical forecast process, increasing planners capability to simulate different models. 

A collaborative, integrated and automated communication process exists, and actual POS customer data is used to generate the short-term demand signal and long-term forecast. 

For Statistical Forecast, as the company already has a good forecast level with demand planning tools and processes in place, it is recommended to implement a root cause analysis to map and understand the reasons of low forecast accuracy by SKU, and then, implement an effectively action plan to fix the problems. Another opportunity is to implement medium to long term forecast tool to support the generation of forecasts for a longer horizon (e.g., 1-5 years). 

These methods are based on subjective opinions obtained from company executives and consumers. These methods are ideally suited for forecasts where there are no past data or past data is not reliable due to the changes in environment (e.g., peacetime data on spare part needs for military aircrafts are not useful for forecasts during war time). Qualitative methods are commonly used for strategic decisions where long-term forecasts are necessary. The qualitative approaches vary in sophistication from scientifically conducted consumer surveys to intuitive judgments from top executives. Quite frequently qualitative methods are also used as supplements to quantitative forecasts. In a 1994 survey of forecasting in practice, 78% of top 500 companies responded that they always or frequently used qualitative methods for forecasting (Sanders and Manrodt, 1994). 

The Delphi Method was developed in 1950 at the RAND Corporation as a long-term forecasting tool (Delbecq et al., 1975). It uses a scientifically conducted anonymous survey of key experts who are knowledgeable about the item being forecasted. 

Choice of forecasting method for short-term, medium-term, and long-term forecasting... 

Fig. 28.4 Long-term forecast for use of virtual and mixed reality at daintier (reproduced with kind permission from Daimler AG 2014 [43])...

It is difficult to make long-term forecasts of development of nuclear power as a whole and in particular of fast reactors. In this connection it is impossible to determine for sure the time in the future, when fast reactors... 

J. Lemaire in Long-term Forecasting of the Behavior of Polymer Materials in Outdoor Weathering Conditions, Report PB90-2002482, NTIS, 1989. 

Palumbo, A. 1998. Long-term forecasting of the extreme eruptions of Etna. Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research, 83, 167-171. 

The development of the CIRENE reactor is eventually Justified on the economic ground, in the frame of long-term forecasts for the growth of power demand in Italy. 

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