Solar forecast

The presence of water as solid, liquid, and gas is a feature that makes Earth unique in the solar system and that makes life possible as we know it. The transport of water and the energy exchanged as it is converted from one state to another are important drivers in our weather and climate. One of the key missions is to develop a better understanding of the global water cycle at a variety of scales so that we can improve model forecasts of climate trends,... 

The chosen reference year is 2040. The biomass potential is taken from the Green-X project on the additional renewable potential in the EU (see www.green-x.at/Green-X %20viewer.htm). The time horizon of the Green-X forecasts is 2020. It is assumed that the potential remains constant after 2020. North Africa has the largest additional potential (wind and solar), followed by Turkey (biomass) and Norway (hydro). 

The altitude effect (Sec. 3) and the radiation amplification factor (Sec. 4) were derived from UV-ERY measurements made simultaneously at two locations in the Czech Republic. The value of RAF obtained from the present data agrees with previous studies of other authors. The value of the amplitude effect agrees with the value used by National Weather Service and EPA [10] but is lower than the values obtained by other authors [2, 9]. The statistical model relating UV-ERY irradiance with total ozone and solar zenith angle was developed (Sec. 5 Fig. 2). Although the information on the total ozone does not satisfactorily improves accuracy of the UV-ERY forecast (further variables should be incorporated into the model to improve its accuracy), the model may be used to estimate annual and daily cycles of sun-visible UV-ERY irradiance for various total ozone levels. The results obtained show variability of the model UV-ERY irradiance related to variability of total column ozone. Specifically, it is demonstrated that the UV-ERY irradiance may exceed the annual/daily normal-ozone maxima during non-negligible portion of the year/day (about 214 months/hours) if the total ozone... 

A more detailed overview of the main components of the GEOS-DAS system the forecast model, the input data (total ozone observations from Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer /TOMS/ and vertical ozone profiles from the Solar Backscatter Ultra Violet instrument /SBUV/, the analysis scheme and its implementation could be easy found in the paper of Riishojgard [19]. 

The meteorological fields are supplied by the limited area model ALADIN-Austria (http //www.cnrm.meteo.fr/aladin/). It is run twice a day at the ZAMG and renders forecasts for 48 h. The meteorological fields have a temporal resolution of 1 h. The data is provided on 45 levels, and model has a horizontal resolution of 9.6 km. Fields of wind, temperatiue, pressure, convective and large scale precipitation, snow cover, solar radiation and specific humidity are extracted directly from the ALADIN dataset. The other fields, cloud optical depth, cloud water- and precipitation water content have to be parameterised (Seinfeld and Pandis 1998) from the ALADIN output. 

See also Atmospheric circulation Atmospheric pressure Atmospheric temperature Clouds Solar illumination Seasonal and diurnal patterns Weather forecasting. 

USING COSMIC RAY FOR MONITORING AND FORECASTING DANGEROUS SOLAR FLARE EVENTS... 

Monitoring and Forecasting Dangerous Solar Flare Events... 

Tobiska, W.K., T. Woods, F. Eparvier, R. Viereck, L. Floyd, D. Bouwer, G. Rottman, and O.R. White, The SOLAR2000 empirical solar irradiance model and forecast tool. J Atmos Solar-Terr Phys 62, 1233, 2000. 

Our subject of discussion in this chapter is global climate prediction and the uncertainties of such predictions. What do we mean by a prediction of climate E. Lorenz, the father of the chaos theory (Gleick, 1988), once clarified the important difference between forecasts of climate anomalies, such as the one caused by the El Nino phenomenon, and forecasts of the state of climate caused by changes in the solar forcing or by changes in the composition of the atmosphere. The first of these phenomena can in principle be predicted per se with useful skill, while in the second case only changes in the statistical structure of climate can be predicted. We will not be able to say whether a particular summer or winter will be warmer or colder than normal but only say, for example, that the number of summers with a temperature above a certain value will be more common than what it was previously. In this chapter I will use the expression climate prediction only in the context of the ability to simulate or predict the overall statistics of climate. 

Sargent and Lundy LLC (2003). Assessment of Parabolic Trough and Power Tower Solar Technology Cost and Performance Forecasts. National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). 

While hydro power occurs continuously, wind and solar power sometimes coti-front utilities with problems due to their natural fluctuating appearance. Therefore any forecast of energy produced by conventional coal or gas plants is more reliable. 

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