Software probabilistic risk assessment

Lawrence, J. D., W. L. Persons, A. Sicherman, and G. L. Johnson (1998). Assessment of software reliability measurement methods for use in probabilistic risk assessment. Technical report, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. 

Fault Tree Analysis Module of ITEM Tool Kit (Item Software [USA] Inc.) SAPHIRE (formerly IRRAS, U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Conunission) Probabilistic Risk Assessment Workstation (Electric Power Research... 

RAVEN and dynamic probabilistic risk assessment Software overview... 

Alfonsi, A., Rabiti, C., Mandelli, D., Cogliati, J. Kinoshita, R. 2013. Raven as a tool for dynamic probabilistic risk assessment Software overview. Proceedings of International Conference of mathematics and Computational Methods Applied to Nuclear Science and Engineering, 1247-1261, San Valley (USA). 

RAVEN and dynamic probabilistic risk assessment Software overview A. Alfonsi, C. Rabiti, D. Mandelli, J. Cogliati, R Kinoshita A. Naviglio... 

Reliab IEEE Trans 47(3) SP321-SP328 Henley EJ, Kumamoto H (1992) Probabilistic risk assessment. IEEE Press, New York Knight CR (1991) Four decades of reliability progress. In Reliability and maintainability symposium, 1991. Proceedings, annual. IEEE, pp 156-160 Moranda PB (1981) An error detection model for application during software development. Reliab IEEE Trans 30(4) 309-312... 

Safety-related software is defined as those computer codes used in safety- related analyses done in support of the Technical Specifications, SAR, and Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA). This limited set of software is selected to provide reasonable quality assurance for the technical programs essential to the reactor operation safety. 

This book, for the most part, is a stand-alone text. It addresses not only the fundamentals of PSA as a science, but insights on the regulatory framework affecting its development and apidication. In particular, it provides the basic methods of analysis that can be employed, available databases, an excellent set of examples, software resources, chapter summaries that tacilitate comprehension, and problem sets that are very well connected to the theory. While much has been written about probabilistic safety assessment over the last three decades, this is the most comprehensive attempt so far to provide a much needed college level textbook for the education of risk and safety professionals. It also provides a valuable reference for any individual curious enough about the risk and safety sciences to want to become much more informed. 

Whenever appropriate, and in line with the probabilistic concept of risk, probability distributions are used in ecological risk assessment of mixtures. This applies to the assessment of exposure (e.g., the probabilistic application of multimedia fate models see Hertwich et al. 1999 Ragas et al. 1999 MacLeod et al. 2002), as well as to the assessment of effects, especially the SSD approach. Recent developments (both conceptually and practically) suggest that joint probability assessments (looking at exposure and effects distributions simultaneously) are applied more frequently. This relates to the refined questions being posed, but also to theory development (e.g., Aldenberg et al. 2002) and technical facilitation by software (e.g., Van Vlaardingen et al. 2004). 

Finally, STAMP points the way to very different approaches to risk assessment. Currently, risk assessment is firmly rooted in the probabilistic analysis of failure events. Attempts to extend current PRA techniques to software and other new technology, to management, and to cognitively complex human control activities have been disappointing. This way forward may lead to a dead end. Significant progress in risk assessment for complex systems will require innovative approaches starting from a completely different theoretical foundation. 

These simulation models use probabilistic approaches, but are much more complex than the simply Monte Carlo models described above that have been used in exposure assessments. Monte Carlo analysis has been applied to simple spreadsheet calculations of dose using add-in software programs such as Risk or Crystal Ball. These analyses seek to understand the uncertainty and variation in the predictions of these simple dose models. In contrast, these new models are stand-alone computer... 

EPRI sponsored development of ORAM software package which consists of Probabilistic Shutdown Safety Assessment (PSSA) and Risk Management Guidelines (RGM), both of which are used to identify and control safety in shutdown operating mode. The stated objectives of ORAM is to ... 

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