Crystal Ball

This is the method used by the commercial software packages Crystal Ball and RISK . The method is ideally suited to computers as the description of the method will reveal. Suppose we are trying to combine two independent variables, say gross reservoir thickness and net-to-gross ratio (the ratio of the net sand thickness to the gross thickness of the reservoir section) which need to be multiplied to produce a net sand thickness. We have described the two variables as follows ... 

A Monte Carlo simulation is fast to perform on a computer, and the presentation of the results is attractive. However, one cannot guarantee that the outcome of a Monte Carlo simulation run twice with the same input variables will yield exactly the same output, making the result less auditable. The more simulation runs performed, the less of a problem this becomes. The simulation as described does not indicate which of the input variables the result is most sensitive to, but one of the routines in Crystal Ball and Risk does allow a sensitivity analysis to be performed as the simulation is run.This is done by calculating the correlation coefficient of each input variable with the outcome (for example between area and UR). The higher the coefficient, the stronger the dependence between the input variable and the outcome. 

Figure 2-122, The first dynamic molecular display of small molecules by Levinthal was driven by the Crystal Ball" [193, ...

Institute of Technology (MIT) [193]. Molecules were represented as line drawings on a homemade display (an oscilloscope (Figure 2-122). In addition, the system had diverse peripherals with many switches and buttons which allowed the modification of the scene. The heart of the. system was the. so-called Crystal Ball" which could rotate the molecule about all three orthogonal axes. This prototype cost approximately two million US dollars. 

Stookey, S.D. (1985) Journey to the Center of the Crystal Ball An Autobiography (The American Ceramic Society, Columbus, Ohio) 2nd edition in 2000. 

Our crystal-ball predictions are that DMFCs will first be commercialized as portable power sources for military and civilian applications before the year 2010 and that there will then be a quantum jump in the technology to be in a position to drive DMFC-powered electric vehicles 10 years thereafter. 

Gazing in the polymer/additive crystal ball appears to indicate that the following future developments affecting polymer/additive analysis will take place ... 

The third step is to select the number of iterations or calculations of dose that are to be performed as a part of each simulation. For the analysis here, a total of 10,000 iterations based on the selection of input variables from each defined distribution were performed as part of each simulation. The large number of iterations performed, as well as the Latin hypercube sampling (non-random sampling) technique employed by the Crystal Ball simulation program, ensured that the input distributions were well characterized, that all portions of the distribution (such as the tails) were included in the analysis, and that the resulting exposure distributions were stable. 

Figure4.8 SEM cross-section (a) and top surface (b) images of lollipop-like V205-Zn0 core-shell structures. The top heads are V2O5 crystal balls and the stems are ZnO nanorods. Reprinted from [117] (2010) American Chemical Society.

The technology for making single crystal ball electrodes is inexpensive and well developed [223, 224], Wire of the noble metals Au and Pt can be melted in a hydrogen oxygen flame. By careful manipulation of the flame on the ball, it can be recrystallized repeatedly to form a perfect single crystal. The crystals have a set of flat spots, [111] planes, which develop on the surface. These facets feature some of the... 

As the main theme of this meeting is to assess and consolidate past achievements in various key areas of inorganic/organo-metallic chemistry, with the objective of gazing deep and hard into the futuristic chemical crystal ball of the 21st century, the purpose of my presentation will be to focus attention on pivotal developments in the field of transition metal atom/metal cluster chemistry over the past decade and then to attempt to project and forecast some of the more promising directions that the area is likely to follow in the years ahead. 

Gas-to-liquids Peering into the crystal ball. 2005. Catalyst Review Newsletter, p. 4. 

Crystal Ball can deal with spreadsheets that contain no random variables, and OPTQUEST can be applied to deterministic optimization problems arising from such spreadsheets. Table 10.11 shows the performance of OPTQUEST applied to the two-variable, one-constraint problem defined in Equations (10.7), which was solved by an evolutionary algorithm in Section 10.5 to six-digit accuracy in 1000 iterations. OPTQUEST finds the same solution with similar effort. 

At the start of a new century it is possible to look at likely developments in the chlor-alkali business although there is some crystal ball forecasting rather than usual market research employed. 

Looking into the crystal ball is usually unwise, but a current forecast of future progress would undoubtedly include extensive work on spin-trapping kinetics. This will allow results to be interpreted with greater assurance, and will permit the method to be used more routinely for the determination of rates of other radical reactions. 

The fact is that we do not possess a crystal ball to foretell the future. What-if questions prepare us to react and respond to certain contingencies. And respond we must, because there are certain events we simply can t prevent. The best response to an event we can t prevent is summed up by the Boy Scout motto Be prepared ... 

She was in a serious mood. I don t see why you have to do all this asking of questions. The sbirri can do that. Why can t he just peer into his crystal ball ... 

Massively relieved that he was going to bring his powers to bear on the problem, I gave the Maestro his canes and helped him rise. He crept across to the slate-topped table where he keeps the big crystal ball. 

The most familiar estimation procedure is to assume that the population mean and variance are equal to the sample mean and variance. More generally, the method of moments (MOM) approach is to equate sample moments (mean, variance, skewness, and kurtosis) to the corresponding population. Software such as Crystal Ball (Oracle Corporation, Redwood Shores, CA) uses MOM to fit the gamma and beta distributions (see also Johnson et al. 1994). Use of higher moments is exemplified by fitting of the... 

The popularity of Monte Carlo for risk-based uncertainty analysis is somewhat driven by the fact that Monte Carlo is fundamentally easy to implement, particularly with the advent of the personal computer, and graphically based software like Crystal Ball (www.decisioneering.com) and Risk (www.palisade. com/risk.html). The availability of such software systems generally promotes the use of uncertainty analysis in ecological risk assessments, reducing the amount of mathematical and statistical knowledge required of the user to implement the... 

Bombardier C, Eisenberg J. Looking into the crystal ball Can we estimate the lifetime cost of rheumatoid arthritis J Rheumatol 1985 12 201-4. 

The first two editions of Good Laboratory Practices concluded with chapters of predictions about the future of GLPs and lahoratories in general. A review of those previous predictions suggests that the crystal hall has proven remarkably rehable. In reahty, of course, a crystal ball has not been the instrument of choice. Much more reliabdity can be obtained by examining the entrails of goats. 

While acknowledging tongue in cheek, consider for a moment the entrails strategy. Other oracle methods rely purely on magic. It is difficult to postulate even an indirect scientific explanation of the predictive power of tea leaves, clover, or the crystal ball, but if a goatherd approaches and asks for a prediction of his future, examining the health of one or more... 

Ratain, M.J. and Relling M.V. (2001) Gazing into a crystal ball— cancer therapy in the post-genomic era. Nat Med 7 283-285. 

Age problems get even more exciting when you get out your crystal ball and make predictions about the future or look back in a photo album to reminisce about the past. The equations used to solve age problems about the future and past get more complicated because the same amount of time has to be added to or subtracted from each variable expression. 

In subsequent years, much evidence has been adduced to support this mechanism. Alkaline phosphatase and, by analogy, other serine enzymes, are directly phosphorylated on serine serine phosphate is not an artifact (Kennedy and Koshland, 1957). In the presence of nitrophenyl acetate, chymotrypsin is acetylated on serine, and the resulting acetylchymotrypsin has been isolated (Balls and Aldrich, 1955 Balls and Wood, 1956). Similarly, the action of p-nitrophenyl pivalate gave rise to pivaloyl chymotrypsin, which could be crystallized (Balls et al., 1957). Neurath and workers showed that acetylchymotrypsin is hydrolyzed at pH 5.5, but that it is reversibly denatured by 8 M urea the denatured derivative is inert to hydrolysis and even to hydroxylamine, whereas the renatured protein, obtained by... 

Students of the occult generally agree that much of fortune-telling has nothing to do with the ability of the practitioner to forecast the future On the contrary, the uncanny ability of the gypsy woman to tell the customer what he or she would like to hear is based on a shrewd ability to assess the facts contributed by the customer and to construct these facts into a plausible sequence of possibilities. The dark tent, crystal ball, and fancy costuming are merely trimmings to enhance the effect ... 

In experimentation, prior knowledge can be quantified by making use of experience, theory, intuition, and all the scientific and pseudoscientific means for estimating what would happen in a given situation. This can be quantified by computer techniques into a prior probability distribution. Knowing this distribution, experimentation can proceed sequentially and selectively, minimizing total cost and maximizing the contribution of past experience. The crystal ball is not necessary, but neither is excessively extensive experimentation. 

It seems quite natural to describe the extended part of a quantum particle not by wavepackets composed of infinite harmonic plane waves but instead by finite waves of a well-defined frequency. To a person used to the Fourier analysis, this assumption—that it is possible to have a finite wave with a well-defined frequency—may seem absurd. We are so familiar with the Fourier analysis that when we think about a finite pulse, we immediately try to decompose, to analyze it into the so-called pure frequencies of the harmonic plane waves. Still, in nature no one has ever seen a device able to produce harmonic plane waves. Indeed, this concept would imply real physical devices existing forever with no beginning or end. In this case it would be necessary to have a perfect circle with an endless constant motion whose projection of a point on the centered axis gives origin to the sine or cosine harmonic function. This would mean that we should return to the Ptolemaic model for the Havens, where the heavenly bodies localized on the perfect crystal balls turning in constant circular motion existed from continuously playing the eternal and ethereal harmonic music of the spheres. 

Moreton RC. Tablet excipients to the year 2001 a look into the crystal ball. Drug Dev Ind Pharm 1996 22 11-23. 

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