Probability of success

Keywords deterministic methods, STOllP, GllP, reserves, ultimate recovery, net oil sands, area-depth and area-thickness methods, gross rock volume, expectation curves, probability of excedence curves, uncertainty, probability of success, annual reporting requirements, Monte-Carlo simulation, parametric method... 

When an explorationist constructs an expectation curve, the above approach for the volumetries of an accumulation is taken, but one important additional parameter must be taken into account the probability of there being hydrocarbons present at all. This probability is termed the Probability of Success" (POS), and is estimated by multiplying together the probability of there being ... 

Recall a typical cumulative probability curve of reserves for an exploration prospect in which the probability of success (POS) is 30%. The success part of the probability axis can be divided into three equal bands, and the average reserves for each band is calculated to provide a low, medium and high estimate of reserves, //there are hydrocarbons present. 

In the next section we shall adapt this probability function to the description of a three-dimensional coil. We conclude this section by noting that Eq. (1.21) may be approximated by two other functions which are used elsewhere in this book. For these general relationships we define v to be the number of successes-that is, some specified outcome such as tossing a head-out of n tries and define p as the probability of success in a single try. In this amended notation, Eq. (1.21) becomes... 

Nature Consider an experiment in which each outcome is classified into one of two categories, one of which will be defined as a success and the other as a failure. Given that the probability of success p is constant from trial to trial, then the probabinty of obseivdng a specified number of successes x in n trials is defined by the binomial distribution. The sequence of outcomes is called a Bernoulli process, Nomenclature n = total number of trials X = number of successes in n trials p = probability of obseivdng a success on any one trial p = x/n, the proportion of successes in n triails Probability Law... 

Project Proposed disbursement for coming year Annual aftertax income if successful Probability of success... 

Insurance is protec tion against risk. Commercial insurance companies minimize their own risks by covering a large number of individuals against a given risk and also by offering coverage on a wide variety of different types of risk. It is frequently quite difficult to assess the probability of success of a particular research and development project. It is much easier for an insurance company to assess its probabih-ties from its casualty tables. 

If the project gets a free ride, i.e., if App is zero, then T[ takes on its maximum possible value of unity. Conversely, if the project and its prodiicliou rate are only at the breakeven point, then T becomes zero. Therefore, contribution efficiency can be regarded as a measure of the probability of success for the project. 

Benefit of Success) x (Probability of Success) - (Cost of Failure) x (Probability of Failure), or... 

A cutpath is a possible flow path from source to sink. Con.sidering the probabilities of success (no bar) the probability of success is T, andV andP and ... 

A probabilistic statement of the likelihood of human-error events presents each error in the task analysis as the right limb in a binary branch of the HRA event tree. These binary branches form the chronological limbs of the HRA event tree, with the first potential error siai ting from the highest point on the tree. (Figure 4.5-4). Any given [ask appears as a two-limb branch the left limb represents the probability of success the right limb represents the probability of failure. 

In other cases, the interest will be in quantifying a complete task, for example, "What is the probability that a lifeboat will be successfully launched " In this case, quantification can be carried out at the global level of the whole task, or the task can be broken down to task elements, each of which is quantified (the decomposition approach). The overall probability of success or failure for the whole task is then derived by combining the individual task elements in some way. 

The analyst can then calculate the total probability of failure (Ft) by summing the probability of all failure paths (Fi-s). The probability of a specific path is calculated by multiplying the probabilities of each success and failure limb in that path. Note The probabilities of success and failure sum to 1.0 for each branch point. For example, the probability of Error B is 0.025 and the probability of Success b is 0.975.) Table 5.2 summarizes the calculations of the HRA results, which are normally rounded to one significant digit after the intermediate calculations are completed. 

This process is repeated for combinations of these variables on the factors that directly impact on the probability of success or failure for the scenario... 

Where f(x) is tlie probability of x successes in n performances. One can show that the expected value of the random variable X is np and its variance is npq. As a simple example of tlie binomial distribution, consider tlie probability distribution of tlie number of defectives in a sample of 5 items drawn with replacement from a lot of 1000 items, 50 of which are defective. Associate success with drawing a defective item from tlie lot. Tlien the result of each drawing can be classified success (defective item) or failure (non-defective item). The sample of items is drawn witli replacement (i.e., each item in tlie sample is relumed before tlie next is drawn from tlie lot tlierefore the probability of success remains constant at 0.05. Substituting in Eq. (20.5.2) tlie values n = 5, p = 0.05, and q = 0.95 yields... 

The interests of SMB for performing large-scale separations of enantiopure drugs has been recognized (very short development time, extremely high probability of success, and attractive purification cost) [68]. Several pharmaceutical and fine chemical companies have already developed SMB processes. However, because of strong confidentiality constraints, public information is limited, and some of the major announcements are summarized below ... 

If a well proves productive, the ensuing completion operation may require an area in excess of the drilling area. This may mean allocations for frac tank placement, blenders, pump trucks, bulk trucks and nitrogen trucks. In today s economic climate, the operator should weigh the probability of success, Bayes theorem (Equation 4-373), with the cost of constructing and reclaiming an additional area needed for stimulation (Equation 4-374). Plans such as these... 

Because of the great differences in the properties between vinyl polymers and heterochain polymers, copolymerization of a vinyl monomer and a cyclic monomer seems very intersting. Yet, little success has been achieved in the formation of random copolymers because the reactivities are very different between vinyl monomers and cyclic monomers. However, recent progress in the field of organic chemistry has suggested many possibilities especially for the activation of monomers and for the modification of the reactivity of the propagating species. The probability of successful synthesis of random copolymers has thus greatly increased. 

---