Probabilistic ecological risk assessments

Problem Formulation for Probabilistic Ecological Risk Assessments... 

Aldenberg, T., Jaworska, J.S., Traas, T.P. (2002). Normal species sensitivity distributions and probabilistic ecological risk assessment. In Posthuma, L., Suter II, G.W. and Traas, T.P., Species Sensitivity, Distributions in Ecotoxicology Boca Raton CRC Press, USA. 

Hall, L.W.J., M.C. Scott, W.D. Killen, and M.A. Unger (2000). A probabilistic ecological risk assessment of tributyltin in surface waters of the Chesapeake Bay watershed. Human Ecol. Risk Assess., 6 141-179. 

Aldenberg T, Jaworska JS, Traas TP. 2002. Normal species sensitivity distributions in probabilistic ecological risk assessment. In Posthuma L, Suter GW, Traas TP, editors. Species sensitivity distributions in ecotoxicology. Boca Raton (FL) Lewis Publishers, p 49-102. 

A. Hart, S. Person, J. Shaw, Problem Formulation for Probabilistic Ecological Risk Assessments , Quantifying Uncertainty in Risk Assessment Practical Approaches and their Application to Estimating Ecological Risks of Pesticides , report on the findings of a workshop held in Pensacola, FL, USA., SETAC, February 24 to March 1,2002 (in preparation). 

Hayashi, T.L, and N. Kashiwagi. 2010. A Bayesian approach to probabilistic ecological risk assessment Risk comparison of nine toxic substances in Tokyo surface waters. Enviroru Sci. Pollut. Res. Int. 18(3) 365-375. 

The Pellston workshop in February 2002, which produced this book, aimed to develop guidance and increased consensus on the use of uncertainty analysis methods in ecological risk assessment. The workshop focused on pesticides, and used case studies on pesticides, because of the urgent need created by the rapid move to using probabilistic methods in pesticide risk assessment. However, it was anticipated that the conclusions would also be highly relevant to other stressors, especially other contaminants. 

Giddings JM, Anderson TA, Hall LW, Hosmer, AR, Kendall RJ, Richards RP, Solomon KR, Williams WM. 2005. Atrazine in North America surface waters a probabilistic aquatic ecological risk assessment Pensacola (FL) SETAC. 

A Probabilistic Aquatic Ecological Risk Assessment Giddings, editor 2005... 

EUFRAM (2006) EUFRAM Report, Volume 1. Introducing Probabilistic Methods into the Ecological Risk Assessment of Pesticides. Report No. Dl-4-5, EUFRAM, York http //www.eufram. com/ (last accessed 26 September 2011). 

Giddings, J.M., T.A. Anderson, L.W.J. Hall, R.J. Kendall, R.P. Richards, K.R. Solomon, and W.M. Williams (2005). A Probabilistic Aquatic Ecological Risk Assessment of Atrazine in North American Surface Waters. Pensacola, FL, USA SETAC Press. 

The risk of exposure to individual chemicals as calculated using the SSD method is based on the same mathematical principles used in the derivation of concentration-response curves in single-species toxicity evaluations. As for individual species, both the concentration addition and response addition models can conceptually be applied in ecological risk assessment for species assemblages exposed to mixtures of toxicants, which are now being formulated probabilistically (Traas et al. 2002 Posthuma et al. 2002a De Zwart and Posthuma 2005). 

EUFRAM. 2005. EUFRAM report, volume 1. Introducing probabilistic methods into the ecological risk assessment of pesticides. No. Version 6. York (UK) EUFRAM, 50 p. http //www.eupra.com/report.pdf (accessed December 28, 2007). 

Burmaster DE, Thompson KM (1995) Backcalculating cleanup targets in probabilistic risk assessments when the acceptability of cancer risk is defined under different risk management policies. Human and Ecological Risk Assessment, 1(1) 101-120. 

Thompson KM, Graham JD (1996) Going beyond the single number Using probabilistic risk assessment to improve risk management. Human and Ecological Risk Assessment, 2(4) 1008-1034. 

Whenever appropriate, and in line with the probabilistic concept of risk, probability distributions are used in ecological risk assessment of mixtures. This applies to the assessment of exposure (e.g., the probabilistic application of multimedia fate models see Hertwich et al. 1999 Ragas et al. 1999 MacLeod et al. 2002), as well as to the assessment of effects, especially the SSD approach. Recent developments (both conceptually and practically) suggest that joint probability assessments (looking at exposure and effects distributions simultaneously) are applied more frequently. This relates to the refined questions being posed, but also to theory development (e.g., Aldenberg et al. 2002) and technical facilitation by software (e.g., Van Vlaardingen et al. 2004). 

Ecological risk may be expressed in a variety of ways. While some ecological risk assessments may provide true probabilistic estimates of both the adverse effect and exposure elements, others may be deterministic or even... 

Hope BK, Generating probabilistic spatially-explicit individual and population exposure estimates for ecological risk assessments, Risk Anal., 20, 573, 2000. 

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