Probabilistic risk assessment benefits

The last three decades have seen the development of a new science to help us better understand the risk of events about which there is often very little information. The reason there is interest in such a science is that there are a great many societal benefits from activities that involve risk risk that if properly managed through better understanding can greatly benefit the quality of all life on the planet earth, both plant and animal. That science is quantitative risk assessment, also known by such names as probabilistic risk assessment and probabilistic salety assessment, the latter being the preferred name for this text. Probabilistic safety assessment divides the risk question into three questions "What can go wrong " "How likely is it " and "What are the consequences "... 

Anderson, P. D., and Yuhas, A. L. (1996). Improving risk management by characterizing reality A benefit of probabilistic risk assessment. Hum Ecol Risk Assess 2, 55-58. 

The nuclear industry could benefit from HAZOP studies. A nuclear power plant is conceptually very similar to a chemical plant. Because HAZOP looks carefully at process deviations, it would help identify hazards that might go unnoticed in a traditional probabilistic risk assessment. 

To estimate the benefit from this potential design alternative, the core damage sequences resulting from a failure of IRWST injection are assumed to be averted. Core damage sequences resulting from a failure of IRWST injection correspond to probabilistic risk assessment Level I accident classification 3BE thus, release category 3BE would be eliminated. 

Finley, B. L., and Paustenbach, D. J. (1994). The benefits of probabilistic exposure assessment Three case studies involving contaminated air, water, and soil. Risk Anal 14, 53-73. 

However, generally speaking cost-benefit analysis used in law enforcement and crime prevention policies is still rather simple and usually takes only some of the outcomes into account (European Commission, 2004). Moreover, after the terrorist attack of 9/11 there has been much focus on preventing or mitigating damage and causalities caused by terrorist activities. A key issue is whether the investment in counter-terrorism devices is well spent in a manner that optimizes public safety in a cost-effective manner. However, to compare costs and benefits requires the quantification of threat probability. Threat prob-abflity is the likelihood that a threat will occur. The formulas mentioned above do not include the issue of risk assessment or address the quantification of security risks (e.g., Stewart et al. 2006 Stewart and Netherton 2008 Dillon et al. 2009 Cox 2009). This is a challenging task, but necessary for probabilistic terrorism risk assessment. In next section, we will discuss the detail formulation of the net benefit of a security measure. 

The modeling of earthquake-induced damage to buildings can be either probabilistic or deterministic or, since seismic risk assessment is a multi-step process, a combination of both. The benefit of probabilistic analysis is that they can account for the many uncertainties associated with seismic risk assessments of building stocks. 

In addition, based on the PSHA results, further applications in respect to seismic hazard mitigation can be assessed (e.g., probabilistic seismic risk assessment). A risk assessment is presented as the probability that a given loss of property and human life exceeds a specific value during a time period. For its application, seismic hazards, exposure (distribution of population or construction), and a corresponding vulnerability are incorporated. The result could be of benefit to decision-makers for territorial planning. 

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