Hydrogen vehicle market penetration

These phases are defined by the number of hydrogen cars on the roads rather than by calendar years. A connection to calendar years can be established through the hydrogen-vehicle market-penetration curves elaborated by the automotive industry (see Fig. 14.5). The infrastructure analysis focuses on the early phase of hydrogen deployment, with a relatively low penetration of hydrogen vehicles because regional aspects are crucial in this phase. 

Figure 15.3. Three USDOE scenarios for hydrogen FCV market penetration (Gronich, 2006), and historical market penetration rates for gasoline hybrid vehicles displaced by 12 years.

Baptista P,Tomas M and Silva C (2010), Plug-in hybrid fuel cell vehicles market penetration scenarios. Inti. Journal of Hydrogen Energy, 35,10024-10030. 

Table 14.4 displays the initial market penetration of all hydrogen vehicles -passenger cars, light-duty vehicles and buses - for the Reference scenario relative to the estimated development of the total vehicle stock as well as the shares of the hydrogen vehicle drive trains, i.e., fuel cells and internal combustion engines. 

In all scenarios, the first hydrogen vehicles penetrating the market are fleet vehicles (buses and LDV). From 2013 on, the first FC cars are assumed to appear. For FC passenger cars it is also assumed that the first ones will be commercially operated fleet vehicles. 

Figure 15.3 shows the number of hydrogen vehicle sales per year for each scenario, and compares this with the historical market penetration of gasoline hybrid-electric vehicles (HEVs) in the USA, with the HEV curves displaced by 12 years, to reflect hydrogen s later introduction into the market. Scenarios 1 and 2 are similar to the market introduction rate of gasoline hybrid vehicles in the United States, but... 

The European Commission set up a stakeholder Contact Croup in 2002 to advice technical and economic developments and to promote the use of alternative fuels for road transport, including natural gas and hydrogen. The Contact Croup conducted an in-depth study of options for motor fuels for achieving a 20% substitution of diesel and gasoline by these alternative fuels. They provided their views on the potential market penetration of 5% hydrogen vehicles... 

This book makes the case that hydrogen vehicles are unlikely to achieve even a 5 percent market penetration by 2030. And this in turn leads to the book s major conclusion for all readers, from policymakers to corporate executives to investors to anyone who cares about the future of the planet Neither government polity nor business investment should be based on the belief that hydrogen cars will have meaningful commercial success in the near- or medium-term. 

Is the chicken-and-egg problem solvable, or will we need this technology to achieve significant market penetration of fuel cell vehicles before we build the hydrogen infrastructure ... 

The committee s market trajectory for hydrogen fuel cell vehicles reflects what is possible and shows initial market penetration in 2015, growing to 12 percent of new light-duty... 

Endo E (2007), Market penetration analysis of fuel cell vehicles in Japan by using the energy system model MARKAL. International Journal of Hydrogen Energy, 32,1347-1354. 

Keles D, Wietschel M, Mosta D and Rentza O (2008), Market penetration of fuel cell vehicles - Analysis based on agent behaviour. International Journal of Hydrogen Energy, 33,4444-4455. 

Park SY, Kim JW, Lee DH (2011) Development of a market penetration forecasting model for hydrogen fuel cell vehicles considering infrastructure and cost reduction effects. Energy Policy 39 3307-3315... 

Survivability, durability, operation, and rapid startup under subfreezing temperatures are stiU current barriers that should be addressed before mass-market penetration of hydrogen-powered PEM fuel cell vehicles. When a PEM fuel cell is subjected to subfreezing temperatures, there is a significant decrease in the electrochemical surface area (ESCA) of the electrodes (normally attributed to ice formation and porosity changes in the CL), and this ultimately... 

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