Forecasting process steps

Molten Nitrate Salt Oxidation Process (10). The reaction of UO2 with molten nitrate salts to form uranates that are sub-sequently reduced to effect a separation of the uranium is being evaluated. The actinide behavior and uranate composition in equimolar sodium-potassium nitrate is being studied to determine the uranate stability and forecasting of cation behavior in subsequent process steps. 

In the application of Grey System Theory to forecast the emission volume of gas from coal mine, we usually select a grey system theoretical differential equation model called GM(1, 1) which includes a first-order variable. The forecasting process can be split to three steps grey generation, parameter calculation and precision test. 

Basing decisions on actual demand rather than forecasts - This step requires efficient sharing of information up and down the chain. An ideal process is to... 

Step 3 is an important and difficult step in the forecasting process. There are a number of forecasting methods that are available in the literature. They can be broadly classified into two categories ... 

In each process step the reviews must address a planning horizon of 18-24 months in order to make a decision for both operational and strategic objectives. As shown in the example below the demand forecasts of product groups... 

Throughout this progression, supply chain efficiency is inexorably linked with a better understanding of exactly what is being demanded of the system. All of the process steps mentioned are affected by what is needed, when it is needed, and where it is needed. And forecast error often becomes the scapegoat for lack of an efficient response. Accurate forecasts are an oxymoron. The fact of the matter is that forecasts will always be inaccurate. In advanced supply chain, the challenge is careful management... 

When the attractiveness of new products is evaluated, either for submitting an offer or for inclusion in the R D program, manufacturing costs have to be estimated on the basis of a laboratory synthesis procedure. This is best done by breaking down the process into unit operations, the standard costs of which have been determined previously. Care has to be taken to estimate the time required for each step of a process. Thus a liquid-liquid extraction can take more time than the chemical reaction. The capability of a fine-chemical company to make dependable manufacturing cost forecasts is a distinct competitive advantage. 

All pharmacies have two things in common when it comes to forecasting sales of services or goods. Sales forecasting is a critical step in the budgeting process, and it is very difficult to do accurately. 

The on-line implementation of environmental processes in the GEM model allows running in global uniform, global variable, and limited area configurations, allowing for multiscale chemical weather forecasting (CWF) modelling. This approach provides access to all required dynamics and physics fields for chemistry at every time step. The on-line implementation of chemistry and aerosol processes... 

The current version of Enviro-HIRLAM has not previously been evaluated against ETEX-1 measurements. The ETX domain (Eig. 5.1) was used with at time-step fixed at 10 min, and initial and boundary conditions were post-processed from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Eorecasts operational model, IFS (Integrated Forecast System). No surface or upper air data assimilation was employed and the model was integrated 80 h into the future. The start time was on 23 October 1994 at 12 00 UTC, 4 h before the start of the release. Output was interpolated to measurement stations in order to compare to the observations and produce statistical measures. 

Project evaluation enables the technical and economic feasibility of a chemical process to be assessed using preliminary process design and economic evaluations. Once a process flowsheet is available, these evaluations can be classified into several steps material balance calculations, equipment sizing, equipment cost determination, utilities requirements, investment cost estimation, sales volume forecasting, manufacturing cost estimation, and finally profitability and sensitivity analysis. 

Once these questions have been addressed, the steps shown in Figure 3 guide the planner towards the development of a forecasting model that can be used in generating the forecast to support the transportation planning process. 

Determining the Value of an Embedded Option The value of an embedded option is found through the binomial tree model. The first step is to forecast the value of the underlying security in which the price S of a security can move, respectively, in the upstate and downstate with a probability of p and 1 p. The change in price occurs in discrete time interval At and will depend on the level of volatility assumed. An option written on the asset, with maturity T will move in discrete steps as the movements of the share prices. The process can be carried on for any number of time intervals (Figure 9.6). 

Productimi planning is concerned with deciding in advance what is to be produced, when to be produced, where to be produced, and how to be produced. It involves foreseeing every step in the process of productimi so as to avoid all difficulties and inefficiencies in the operatimi of the plant. Productimi planning has been defined as the technique of forecasting or picturing ahead every step in a Irnig series of separate operatirms each step to... 

Using what-if analysis, demand forecasters can shape unconstrained demand based on current sales and marketing activities as well as external factors affecting demand. This includes weather, special events, and economic conditions to optimize volume and revenue while minimizing marketing investment. Figure 3.7 illustrates the four key steps in the market-driven demand management process. 

When Croxton et al. (2002) detailed the sub-process of determine forecasting procedures, they explain that the first step is to xmderstand what type of forecast is needed, then what data is available, and finally, select a forecasting method which will depend on the environment that the forecasting is taking place. They presented a two-by-two matrix to show which forecast approach is appropriate based on demand variability and demand volume, as shown in Fig. 4.3. 

Step 8 - Resolve/Collaborate on Exception Items. This step involves the process of investigating order forecast exceptions through querying of shared data, email, telephone conversations, meetings, and so on, and submitting any resulting changes to the order forecast. 

The first generation of the CPFR process had nine tasks in its generic business model that trace the collaboration process between manufacturers, retailers, and distributors. The nine steps, listed in Table 3.5, provide a flavor for the overall CPFR approach. The first two steps are planning-, the next six are forecasting-, the last step is replenishment. 

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