Biomass market share

United States in 1998) from coal (56%), nuclear (20%), natural gas (11%), hydro (8%), oil (3%), biomass (1.5%), geothermal (0.2%), wind (0.1%), and solar (0.02%). Recently, wholesale and some retail markets have been unbundled, allowing competitors to sell electrons with the monopoly utility or municipality providing the transmission service. Open-access restructuring gives customers choices and creates a commodity market in which the lowest-cost electricity wins market share at the expense of higher-cost alternatives. 

CO is derived from a variety of feedstocks such as petroleum gas, fuel oil, coal, and biomass. The industrial scale production of PO starts from propylene, which is mainly obtained from crude oil. However, due to the high importance of this compound, many pathways from renewable sources have additionally been developed [54]. PP is converted to PO by either hydrochlorination or oxidation [55]. The use of chlorine leads to large amounts of salts as by-products, therefore oxidation methods are more important, such as the co-oxidation of PP using ethylbenzene or isobutene in the presence of air and a catalyst. However, this process is economically dependent on the market share of these by-products, thus new procedures without significant amounts of other side-products have been developed, such as the HPPO (hydrogen peroxide to propylene oxide) process in which propylene is oxidized with hydrogen peroxide to give PO and water [56, 57] (Fig. 14). 

TECHNOLOGY BIOMASS COST /0Dt TECHNICAL RISK POSSIBLE END USE MARKET SHARE... 

The basic steps followed in the product penetration assessment are presented in Figure II. This procedure first entails a static economic analysis based on the competition between the biomass-derived product price and the market price. The resuit is a steady-state market share, reflecting a situation that would be expected to exist after a period during which the competitive economic forces remained constant. Steady-state conditions do not hold soon after the introduction of a new, cost-competitive mission, technology, or product. The marketplace will be in a state of flux as the newcomer gains wider recognition and acceptance. 

This dynamic market behavior is modeled as a "behavioral lag" constraint, which reduces the rate at which a new mission or technology may be introduced. With this information a dynamic biomass product market share can be generated and applied to the product demand forecast to obtain an estimate of the potential biomass mission penetration as a function of time. 

Steady-State Market Share to Biomass-Derived Product —... 

When two or more new technologies are competing for a share of the same market, a more general market share formula must be used. For example, if N different biomass missions all produce the same product (such as SNG). then their respective market shares would be represented by the following equation ... 

To find the share of the open market captured by a new fuel in any particular year, the equilibrium market share and dynamic market response curve are multiplied. This is done on an annual basis, resulting in a dynamic market share for the new product that varies with time. The actual biomass product demand is then found as a function of time by applying the dynamic market share to estimates of the size of the market that is available to the new product. 

Market price — The price against which the biomass-derived product must compete for market share. 

Steady-state market share — The fraction of the product market that a biomass-derived product would supply at a point long after the biomass product production price and market price had become unchanging with time. 

Market share parameter (T) — A variable used to characterize the behavior of an energy marketplace. This variable is an estimate of the steady-state market share of a biomass product once the comparative economics are determined. 

The number of vehicles driven solely by biofuels will reach a maximum of only 100 million units due to the strong competition between biofuel and food production and to the restricted availability of biomass (as waste) for fuel production. The market share of vehicles driven by pure hydrogen (without a traction battery) will reach 50 million units. This number is limited by the high costs, restricted platinum-group metals availability, and problematic handling and storage of hydrogen, especially in mobile applications. 

In this methodology, the results produced are not interactive with the basic framework of energy demands and alternative prices in which the technologies compete. Thus, the assumed market demands and prices are not directly perturbed by the biomass mission market penetration, a valid assumption as long as the potential biomass mission demand does not become too large a share of the total demand. 

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