Uncertainty supply chain

This chapter presents a methodology and approach to quantifying and ranking feedstock supply system variables that affect the delivered feedstock cost according to three statistically derived parameters sensitivity, uncertainty, and influence. A discussion of supply chain uncertainty will show that significant variability... 

Zhang T, Sun LY (2005) Supply chain uncertainty management technologies and strategies. Tsinghua University Press, Beijing... 

Chung-Chi H, Cheng-Han W (2008) Capacity allocation ordering, and pricing decisions in a supply chain with demand and supply chain uncertainties. Eur J Oper Res 184 667-684 Coley DA, Howard M, Winter M (2009) Local food, food miles and caibon emissions A comparison of farm shop and mass distribution approaches. Food Policy 34(2) 150-155 Dabbene F, Gay P, Tortia C (2014) Traceability issues in food supply chain management A review. Biosyst Eng 120 65-80... 

Reducing the need for inventories and safety stocks as the vagaries of supply chain uncertainty are reduced and online visibility to what is happening in the chain introduces the ability to move goods to the most urgent point of need. Sharing of actual retail point-of-sale (POS) information with manufacturers and suppliers lessens the uncertainty and enhances the forecast accuracy involved in joint... 

We referred in Chapter 9 to the potential of supply chain event management (SCEM) to enable better identification of the occurence of unplanned events (or the non-occurrence of planned events). Tools such as these can significantly reduce supply chain uncertainty and thus reduce the need for additional inventory buffers. Another emerging technology that is enabling dramatic improvements in visibility is Radio Frequency Identification (RFID). 

Understanding the customer and supply chain uncertainty First, a company must understand the customer needs for each targeted segment and the uncertainty these needs impose on the supply chain. These needs help the company define the desired cost and service requirements. The supply chain uncertainty helps the company identify the extent of the unpredictability of demand and supply that the supply chain must be prepared for. 

STEP 1 UNDERSTANDING THE CUSTOMER AND SUPPLY CHAIN UNCERTAINTY To understand the customer, a company must identify the needs of the customer segment being served. Let us compare Seven-Eleven Japan and a discounter such as Sam s Club (a part of Walmart). When customers go to Seven-Eleven to purchase detergent, they go there for the convenience of a nearby store and are not necessarily looking for the lowest price. In contrast, low price is very important to a Sam s Club customer. This customer may be willing to tolerate less variety and... 

The first step in achieving strategic fit between competitive and supply chain strategies is to understand customers and supply chain uncertainty. Uncertainty from the customer and the supply chain can be combined and mapped on the implied uncertainty spectrum. 

Several simulation-based optimization models in the context of supply chain management can be found e.g. in the area of supply chain network optimization (Preusser et al. 2005) or to simulate rescheduling of production facing demand uncertainty or unplanned shut-downs (Tang/Grubbstrom 2002 Neuhaus/Giinther 2006). A basic approach of simulation-based optimization is presented by Preusser et al. 2005, p. 98 illustrated in fig. 24. 

R6 - Price uncertainty consideration in planning Spot demand quantity and prices are uncertain in commodity business specifically in the considered planning horizon of 3-12 months. Since price is the main buying criterion in commodity business, mid-term demand quantity is mainly influenced by the price level. If spot demand quantity and prices depend on each other, uncertainty can be limited to one parameter while the other parameter is kept constant. The spot demand price is considered as uncertain in this problem leading to different turnover scenarios for the same sales quantity. Lababidi et al. (2004) presenting a petrochemical case that had to consider uncertainty in market prices and raw material costs in supply chain optimization. 

Gupta A, Maranas CD (2003) Managing demand uncertainty in supply chain planning. Computers Chemical Engineering 27 (8-9) 1219-1227... 

Jung JY, Blau G, Pekny JF, Reklaitis GV, Eversdyk D (2004) A simulation based optimization approach to supply chain management under demand uncertainty. Computers Chemical Engineering 28 2087-2106... 

Heparin exposed the multi-layered nature of many supply chains and the high levels of manufacturer uncertainties that are present with regards to their raw materials supply base (Shanley et al., 2008). USP has also introduced a general chapter entitled Good Distribution Practices-Supply Chain Integrity <1083> to try and address these issues (USP, 2012a). 

In addition to the general systems inertia already mentioned, the uncertainties that always remain in view of all iimovations represent significantly more effective barriers to iimovation than all positive or negative motives and interests of the participants, which could be ascertained in the various case studies. The need to focus on innovation systems at supply chain level as well as overcoming system inertia and uncertainties and/or lack of knowledge, as fundamental barriers to innovation are some of the important findings of the SubChem project . However, this in turn produces new questions. 

Tsiakis, P., Shah, N., and Pantelides, C.C. (2001) Design of multiechelon supply chain networks under demand uncertainty. 

Obviously supply chains are global these days, and shipments are typically made by a variety of means, including cargo ships, air, rail, and trucks all of these can be late or can get in trouble because of the weather, traffic, industrial disputes, or other reasons. Supply chain systems like this are very complex, because of the uncertainties in deliveries, parts and shipments are lost and/or stolen, goods get damaged during shipment, or the number of international ports and customs often take unpredictable time to check shipments with different levels of safety/security, and many other reasons. 

Mo Y, Harrison TP (2005) A conceptual framework for robust supply chain design under demand uncertainty. In Geunes J, Pardalos PM (eds) Supply Chain Optimization. Springer, Berlin et al., pp 243-263... 

Tsiakis P, Shah N, Pantelides CC (2001) Design of Multi-echelon Supply Chain Networks under Demand Uncertainty. Industrial Engineering Chemistry Research 40 3585-3604... 

Automation users would like to apply the CII for automating functions that are crucial for them and for society (this is intrinsic to the definition of critical infrastructure ). The functions can be related for example to supply chains, production or financial operations. The positive side is given by the possibility to conduct fast and efficient reactions to unwanted conditions (e.g., unsafe states, security breaches). However this exposes those critical functions to the vulnerabilities and uncertainties of the CII - which can neither ensure the availability of the connection, nor the secure treatment of the data. 

Keywords Disruption Management, Uncertainty, Refinery, Supply Chain Modeling. 

F. Bernstein and A. Federgruen, Decentralized Supply Chains with Competing Retailers under Demand Uncertainty, Management Science (2001). 

Supply chain networks Simultaneous maximization of (1) participants expected profits, (2) average safe inventory level (for plants, distribution centers and retailers), (3) average customer service levels (for retailers), (4) robustness of selected objectives to demand uncertainties and fair profit distribution. A two-phase fuzzy decisionmaking method Chen and Lee (2004) extended the smdy of Chen et al. (2003) by including uncertainty in product demands and prices. Cheu et al. (2003b) Cheu and Lee (2004)... 

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