Probability, risk perception

Outcome 1. Suppose that risk perception is the main driver of a consumer s reaction to a food safety scare. This would suggest that communicating research information effectively is a powerful tool in changing behavior. That is, providing and communicating the true probabilities of being exposed to the risk (when possible) will be a useful way to respond to consumers concerns. 

The way marketers respond to food crises should take into account whether a country s food consumption is influenced more by risk perceptions or by risk attitudes. The relative influence of risk perception and risk attitude on consumption depends, among others, on the accuracy of knowing the probability that negative health side effects could occur from eating food products. 

In the absence of accurate information about the state of the process, risk perception may be reevaluated downward as time passes without an accident. In fact, risk probably has not changed, only our perception of it. In this trap, risk is assumed to be reflected by a lack of accidents or incidents and not by the state of the safety control structure. 

Brun, W. 1994. Risk perception main issues, approaches and findings. In Wright, G. Ayton, P. (eds), Sutjecttve probability 295-320. Chichesten Wiley and Sons. 

As discussed in Chapter 9, Risk Perception—Defining How to Identify Personal Responsibility , if no agreement is reached, the next level of management is contacted and a second discussion begins. The intent of having these discussions is to reduce the potential and probability that employees will continue to operate machinery or equipment that is not functioning as intended and believe they have no alternative but to use the machinery or equipment in an unsafe condition. 

The question of whether the performance tendency results as a product of expectations and value or of probability and usefulness played a relatively important role in this connection. This question led to some stimulating numbers games (Edwards, 1968), but no conclusions could be arrived at this is no surprise, because if probability is not appropriate as a basis for decision-making in hazardous situations, the relative importance of incentives, measured in termsof expectations, cannot serve as a basis from which one can, in the usual manner, determine the intention of performance. The solution of this problem would be relatively simple if readiness to perform depended only on the evaluation of the consequences, as is, according to Jungermamnn (1982), the case for risk perception among lay persons. 

The major influence behind this seems to have been the extent of coverage in the media, where problems with food rather than the successes tend to be reported. Scientific perception of risk is, not unexpectedly, rather different. Indeed scientists may not agree amongst themselves about where additives should be placed in any ranked list of chemicals in food. But most would probably agree that they should be near the bottom. My own ranking would be as follows, from greatest to least risk ... 

While it is clear that some people will not accept a definition of safety that is relative, it appears that most people feel safe when they are convinced that risks to their well-being are sufficiently low, even if not completely absent. (There are some dramatic and important qualifications on this conclusion, as we shall see in the later section concerning people s perceptions of risk. While for the most part people accept that the condition of safety is not equivalent to the condition of being completely risk-free, most people do not perceive risk as simply a matter of probability, as do the experts. This intriguing and well-documented fact complicates greatly the public dialogue on matters of risk.)... 

Your perceptions could of course work the other way with exaggerated ideas of the possible, but this is scarcely a problem from a development point of view. If you are seeking to learn from experience, the risk of being undone by over-ambitious plans based on an Inflated sense of your capabilities is probably worth taking. 

Risk is considered as the probability of a negative event occurring and can be quantified. However, this form of risk can be understood as "danger." The perception of risk is a socially constructed phenomenon, and is more difficult to measure. Psychological risk is based on perception rather than... 

The perception of risks and benefits changes with time as the history of DDT illustrates. DDT was first synthesized in 1874 by the German chemist Zeidler. However, the insecticidal properties of DDT were discovered only later, in 1939, by Paul Mueller in Switzerland, who received the Nobel Prize for his discovery. After it became available on the market, DDT was accepted immediately and used on a large scale. For the first time in history, people could control insects effectively. Mothers could relieve their children from lice, farmers could protect their livestock and harvest. DDT has probably been responsible for saving more lives than any other synthetic chemical, perhaps with the exception of antibiotics. It is estimated that around 1940 ca 300 million people suffered from malaria. The mortality rate was about 1 percent. Thirty years later DDT and WHO (World Health organization) malaria program had eradicated malaria in many parts of the world. DDT also... 

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