Future Threats

Arrests, the loss of sanctuary and the freezing of assets have diminished some threats, but it has spawned others as terrorists adjust to being the focus of the global war on terrorism. What will be the balance Will loss of sanctuary and financial resources prevent terrorists from developing or acquiring CBRN that can be used to mass effect Or will the global war on terrorism embolden terrorists and states to share and use CBRN While terrorists continue to use traditional weapons in innovative ways, a primary concern is terrorist adoption of CBRN weapons in the future. The potential for this is explored next. 

As discussed above, several states that support terrorism have some CBRN capabilities, so the technical constraint alone is not limiting. Rather, the potential backlash against any state that provides a terrorist organization with CBRN has been a sufficient deterrent to this point. However groups such as al Qaeda, Aum Shinrikyo, and the Tamil Tigers have shown significant interest in one or more types of unconventional weapons. 

There can be no doubt that, if given the opportunity, terrorist groups such as al Qaeda would not hesitate to use disease as a weapon against the unprotected to spread chemical agents to inflict pain and death on the innocent or to send suicide-bound adherents armed with radiological explosives on missions of murder [10]. 

With the spread of information and the desperation for hard currency of some of the state sponsors of terrorism, as well as the changing national security environment, it is possible that terrorists may build or acquire CBRN in the future. 

Bolton s opinion was bolstered in June 2005 by Senator Richard Lu-gar s survey of 85 non-proliferation and national security analysts from the United States and other nations. It was designed in part to characterize the risks related to the terrorist use of CBRN. The survey revealed that experts believe the probability of an attack somewhere in the world with a CBRN weapon was 50% over the next five years and 70% over the next ten. An attack with a radiological weapon was seen as the most probable with the likelihood of an attack with a nuclear or biological weapon considered about half as plausible [37]. The average probability of a nuclear attack in the next ten years was nearly 30%, with experts almost evenly divided between terrorist acquisitions of a working nuclear weapon versus self-construction [37]. The average risk estimate over ten years for major chemical and biological attacks was 20%. Senator Lu-gar concluded The bottom line is this for the foreseeable future, the United States and other nations will face an existential threat from the intersection of terrorism and weapons of mass destruction.  

Wastes of durable and non-durable plastic-related goods, packaging, containers, scraps and trimmings from residential, commercial 

Adi and X. Qian, Journal of Bionic Engineering, 2008, 5, Supplement, 28. 

Hawkin in Environmental Deterioration of Polymers in Polymer Stabilization, Ed., W.L. Hawkin, Wiley Interscience, New York, NY, USA, 1971. 

Grattand, Journal of the International Institute for Conservation - Canadian Group, 1978, 4, 1,17. 

Ranby and J.F. Rabek in Environmental Corrosion in Effects of Hostile Environment on Coatings and Polymers, Eds., D. Garner and G. Stahl, ACS Symposium 229, American Chemical Society, Washington DC, USA, 1983. 

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My thanks go once again to Jonathan Tucker, my special contributor, for allowing me to reprint a portion of his work from his wonderful book Scourge The Once and Future Threat of Smallpox. It continues to be the perfect segue into the Chemical and Biological Terrorism section of the book. 

Olson, KB. Aum Shinrikyo Once and Future Threat Emerging Infectious Disease, 5(4) 513-516, 1999... 

Kyle B. Olson, Aum Shinrikio Once and Future Threat, Emerging Infectious Diseases Journal, Special Issue, Vol.5 No.4, July - August, 1999. 

Aum Shinrikyo Once and Future Threat , Kyle B. Olson Research Planning, Inc., Arlington, Virginia, USA in Emerging Infectious Diseases, Special Issue Vol. 5 Number 4,1999, CDC, Atlanta, USA. 

Some of the toxins in this group must be considered potential future threats to our soldiers as large-scale production of peptides becomes more efficient. However, because many of these toxins are difficult to produce in large quantities, their threat potential may be limited. 

US better citizens, who collectively will be better capable of identifying managing future threats, and protecting the countiy... 

Finally, science and progranunatic management policy recommendations to enable the US to respond more fully to current CB defense agents and future threats were developed. These recommendations are included in Chap. 5. 

To protect the warfighter from current and potential future super-toxins, the threats should be described with as much technical precision as possible. Future threats may include more sophisticated CB weapons but also entities such as prions (as weaponized proteins) or toxic nanoparticles. 

Aum Shinrikyo Once and Future Threat. Available at http //www. cdc.gov/ncidod/eid/vol5no4/olson.htm (accessed August 20, 2009). 

As the time passes the consumers are likely to go only for LCD TV, computer monitor, mobile, calculator, audio-video equipment, large signboard etc. due to their excellent characteristics. Therefore, the disposal of LCD coating on monitor will pose a serious threat to environmentalists. Recycling method /disposal need to be developed to tackle the possible future threat. Liquid crystals are hazardous to water when it comes in contact and the biodegradation is very slow. 

Jonathan B. Tucker, Scourge The Once and Future Threat of Smallpox (New York Atlantic Monthly Press 2001) p. 21. 

Aum Shinrikyo Once and Future Threat, http //wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/ article/5/4/99-0409 article, (accessed Jan 2015). 

The decreasing likelihood of state use of chemical weapons and increasing interest of terrorist groups in using toxic chemicals as weapons will have a great impact on the spectrum of future threat agents, modes of dissemination and, consequently, preparation of countermeasures for military forces and the general population. 

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