Forecast/forecasting characteristics

An example follows that is used to illustrate some of the details of the EC analysis process and its forecasting characteristics. The general reader may skip over this technical section without loss of continuity of the subject. It involves an important and very common EC problem and illustrates the effective use of the flux concept in connecting the interphase chemical movement in a multimedia context. 

Spot demand price elasticity is not a forecasted parameter but needs to be derived analytically. As specified in the value chain characteristics in subchapter 3.2 the company does not have a monopoly in the market and sales decision of the company do not influence the market price. Therefore, elasticity is not determined from a macro-economic perspective considering market prices but from a micro-economic perspective analyzing the specific spot demand forecasts the company receives. Table 24 provides the detailed steps of the algorithm for determining elasticity and the price-... 

Another aspect of matching output to user needs involves presentation of results in a statistical framework—namely, as frequency distributions of concentrations. The output of deterministic models is not directly suited to this task, because it provides a single sample point for each run. Analytic linkages can be made between observed frequency distributions and computed model results. The model output for a particular set of meteorologic conditions can be on the frequency distribution of each station for which observations are available in sufficient sample size. If the model is validated for several different points on the frequency distribution based on today s estimated emission, it can be used to fit a distribution for cases of forecast emission. The fit can be made by relating characteristics of the distribution with a specific set of model predictions. For example, the distribution could be assumed to be log-normal, with a mean and standard deviation each determined by its own function of output concentrations computed for a standardized set of meteorologic conditions. This, in turn, can be linked to some effect on people or property that is defined in terms of the predicted concentration statistics. The diagram below illustrates this process ... 

The attractiveness of production of liquid fuels from biomass lies in the renewable characteristics of biomass. As a consequence, the costs of an industry based on biomass conversion would be more or less predictable by inflation forecasting, and essentially independent of external political factors. With the incorporation of municipal solid waste as a biomass feedstock, such an industry also presents the opportunity of developing improved methods of recycling and waste disposal. 

The solubility parameter introduced by Hildebrand90, rather than the dielectric constant or dipole moment is a characteristic quantity of the solvent which appears appropriate (if no specific solvation effects have to be taken into account) to forecast the micellar solubility of the alkali dinonylnaphthalene sulfonates in the particular solvent. As the solubility parameter of the solvent is increased, the micelles tend to assume a smaller size (Fig. 14). This size reduction gives a looser packing of the DNNS tails and, thus, exposes the more interactive aromatic and polar parts in such a way as to reduce the difference between the solubility parameter of the solvent and the effective solubility parameter of the solvent-accessible portions of the lipophilic micelle. The automatic matching of the solubility parameter for micelle and solvent by reduction of micelle size and packing in solvents of high solubility parameters recalls the behavior of linear macromolecules in solvents of different solvent power. 

Substantial yield increases can also be achieved by exploiting the full genetic potential of seeds, whether by modern breeding technologies or genetic modification. Hundreds of new seed varieties with improved characteristics are introduced every year. Over the past 30 years, the yield of major field crops such as com, soya, wheat, and rice has increased by 60 to 80 percent and further increases are forecasted. Appropriate treatment of those seeds with crop protection chemicals before planting has proven to increase plant vigor overall. 

Even without software support, the process engineer can still obtain certain predictions by a precise analysis of the processes involved. In this case, process-specific diagrams are very helpful. These illustrate, for example, the specific energy input (Fig. 11.9) or other quality-related characteristics as a function of viscosity, throughput, speed, or discharge pressure. With the aid of enthalpy (Fig. 11.10) as a physical, process-independent value, initial forecasts can be obtained as to the energy that will be required to melt a resin and to extrude at a specified end temperature. 

Other information can be obtained from thermal studies of TPU elastomers which is also helpful in understanding and improving these high performance, easily processed polymers. But it was the intention to limit this chapter to the basic DSC thermal responses which forecast strengths and weaknesses in TPU processing and performance characteristics and to indicate the parts of the TPU structure that are responsible for these thermal responses. Hopefully, this has been accomplished. 

Decided mainly by the power load characteristics of timber processing factory, the biomass power plant is required to operate except the overhaul of production line once a year. So the designed power output is up to 6.65 million kw.h/year. The current electricity price in Sanya is 0.55 Y/kw.h, so the production value of the power plant is about 3.48 million Y/year and the gross profit is 2.32 million Y/year. The profit forecasting is shown in Table 4. 

The projections are based on a recent forecast (Case B) by the Energy Research and Development Administration (ERDA) of nuclear power growth in the United States (2) and on fuel mass-flow data developed for light water reactors fueled with uranium (LWR-U) or mixed uranium and plutonium oxide (LWR-Pu), a high temperature gas-cooled reactor (HTGR), and two liquid-metal-cooled fast breeder reactors (LMFBRs). Nuclear characteristics of the fuels and wastes were calculated using the computer code ORIGEN (3). 

Tactical models are designed to make specific and short-term predictions or forecasts of specific populations or communities. Simulation models fall into this category. Detailed information about the species, interactions, and physical characteristics of the system are necessary. Simulation models are generally detailed, requiring complex computations, and are not mathematically tractable for simplification. 

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