Forcings, climate natural

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Taken together. Figs 17-2, 4-13, 17-3, and 1-2 constitute a complex image of the Earth s climate system, including most of the factors that are known to be involved. However, such diagrams fail to adequately represent the dynamical nature of the totality of interactions of all of the parts. In order to explore these interactions, the natural variability of climate, and changes due to external perturbations, we must now introduce the key notions of forcings, feedbacks, and responses. 

Figure 17-8 summarizes and compares the anthropogenic and natural forcings for the period 1800-1990, showing the complex nature of the issue of anthropogenic climate forcing. 

The key to understanding the natural variability of climate and its response to natural or anthropogenic forcings is to understand fully both forcings and feedbacks. Forcings are relatively... 

The extremely complex interrelations between human activity and natural forces—air masses, winds, ocean currents, evaporation, and precipitation— means that researchers from many fields pool their efforts in an attempt to understand how the climate is reacting to changes. But this complexity also means that knowing what the climate will be like in 50 or 100 years is among the most challenging problems in science. 

Mann M., Bradley R.S., et al. Global-scale temprature patterns and climate forcing over the past six centuries. 1998 Nature 392 779-787. 

It is a pleasure to thank Rudolph Black of the United States Advanced Research Projects Agency, who, in May 1971, funded our proposal that "temperature variations in past climates may be evaluated by measuring stable isotope ratios in natural data banks such as tree ring and varve sequences". We thank William Best of the U.S. Air Force Office of Scientific Research who monitored our study and Frank Eden of the U.S. National Science Foundation who subsequently provided further funds. 

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