Energy demand projections

According to the DOE Energy Information Administration projections, energy demand is likely to grow dramatically, perhaps quadrupling by the end of the next century. World electricity consumption is expected to nearly double by 2020, with annual growth in the industrialized countries averaging about one and one-half percent. 

The only way to reconcile the true cost implications of a reduction in steam demand created by an energy reduction project is to use the optimization techniques described in the previous section. An optimization model of the existing utility system must first be set up. Starting with the steam load on the main with the most expensive steam (generally the highest pressure), this is gradually reduced and the utility system reoptimized at each setting of the steam load. The steam load can only be reduced to the point where the flowrate constraints are not violated. 

Recently the concept is of interest, due to increased energy demands and costs. At some point the high construction costs of the SPS become favorable due to their low-cost delivery of power and the rising costs of electricity. Continued advances in material science and space transport reduce the projected costs of the SPS. 

Projections on the future development of global energy demand... 

Figure 3.2. Development of primary energy demand for different world regions since 1965 and demand projections until 2030 (BP, 2006 IEA, 2006 UNPD, 2006), excluding non-commercial biomass for developing countries.

The HyWays project has concluded that hydrogen can reduce the C02 emissions from road transport by over 50% much of the remaining emissions come from goods transport where no hydrogen fuel was assumed (HyWays, 2007). In contrast, biofuels can only supply a fraction of today s transportation energy demand (6% to 15% within the EU), if the competing use of biomass in the stationary sector is taken into account (JEC, 2007) (see also Chapter 7). 

With the current energy demands increasing, the unit costs of all utilities are increasing. Any prices quoted need to be reviewed periodically to determine their effect on plant operations. A company utility supervisor is a good source of future price trends. Unfortunately, there are no shortcuts for estimating and projecting utility prices. Utilities are the third largest expense item in the manufacture of a product, behind raw materials and labor. 

The estimates focus on three time slices The current atmosphere (selected as 1992), and two future atmospheric situations 2015 and 2050. Estimates for the 1992 emissions have been given, as well as projections for 2015 (IPCC, 1999). For 2050 very estimates have been made, based on extrapolations of the 2015 estimates. In addition options exists for high or low growth in energy demand, and possibilities for technology improvements. The table below gives the adopted NOx emissions for current conditions (1992,2015), a medium and a high case for 2050 (IPCC, 1999). 

World energy demand. (Data up to 2006, projections after 2006.)... 

A second strategic issue concerns scale. Projections of global energy needs imply a doubling in overall energy demand and a tripling of the electricity demands by the year 2050. 

---