Ecological niche modeling

Integrating Geographic Information Systems and Ecological Niche Modeling into Disease Ecology A Case Study of Bacillus anthracis in the United States... 

Evaluating Landscape Ecology with Predictive Ecological Niche Modeling... 

TABLE 1. Data Sources for Anthrax-Outbreak Localities (1957-2005) Used to Develop Ecological Niche Models of Bacillus anthracis in the Contiguous United States and to Project the Distribution in Mexico... 

Ecological Niche Modeling Modeling Scenarios of Bacillus anthracis in North America... 

Figure 8. A. The potential geographic distribution of Bacillus anthracis in the contiguous United States based on a nine-variable ecological niche modeling experiment based on current climatic conditions from the HADCM3 B2 future climate scenario. B. The potential geographic distribution of B. anthracis in 2050 using the future climate data from the HADCM3 B2 climate scenario. A threshold of six models or better was selected to visualize these analyses.

Peterson, A.T., Sanchez-Cordero, V., Beard, C.B., Ramsey, J.M. 2002. Ecologic niche modeling and potential reservoirs for Chagas disease, Mexico. Emerg. Infect. Dis. 8 662-667. 

Kluza, D.A., McNyset, K.M. 2005. Ecological niche modeling of aquatic invasion species. Aquat. Invad. 16 1-7. 

McNyset, K.M. 2005. Use of ecological niche modelling to predict distributions of freshwater fish species in Kansas. Ecol. Freshwater Fish 14 243-255. 

Reed, K.D., Meece, J.K., Archer, J.R., Peterson, A.T. (2008). Ecologic niche modeling of Blastomyces dermatitidis in Wisconsin. PLoS ONE 3,1-7. 

Maguire, K.C., and Stigall, A.L. (2009) Distribution of fossil horses in the Great Plains during the Miocene and Pliocene An ecological niche modeling approach. Paleobiology, 35 597-611. 

Peterson, A.T. and Vieglais, D.A. (2001) Predicting species invasions nsing ecological niche modeling New approaches from bioinformatics attack a pressing problem. Bioscience,... 

This model generally takes into account the natural ecological model. The niche model proposed by Brush refers much to that of interspecies interaction that is only a part of this model and it explains only the crop introduction and enhancement aspects. Intraspecific competition is not indicated by the model, though it was suggested to be scaled down for inter-varietal competition. Inter-varietal competition that leads to a balance or imbalance in the specific niches is niche theory for GE but this is not sufficient. The assumptions of the classical models are easily violated in farming systems in the centre of diversity, so that we should expect co-existence rather than the competitive exclusion to prevail. Hence, the niche model does not completely explain the GE scenario. 

To understand how ENM can be useful for predicting the geographic space in which anthrax outbreaks may occur naturally, it is first important to define the concept of the ecological niche and provide a conceptual framework for the modeling process. 

Results from the first modeling effort for B. anthracis [4] indicated that mean NDVI was the most limiting variable in the rule set. For this chapter, I provide a five-variable coverage set to define the ecological niche for B. anthracis. Soil parameters were removed from the coverage set and replaced with an additional NDVI variable -annual amplitude [68]. 

Kearney, M., Porter, W. (2009). Mechanistic niche modelling combining physiological and spatial data to predict species ranges. Ecology Letters 12,334-350. 

Gilichinsky D, Rivkina E, Shcherbakova V, Laurinavichuis K, Tiedje J (2003) Supercooled water brines within permafrost - an unknown ecological niche for microorganisms a model for astrobiology. Astrobiology 3 331-341... 

Blackburn et al. [4] provided the first ENM-based geographic predictions for the potential distribution of B. anthracis for the lower 48 states. That modeling scenario was based on a six-variable niche definition and included two soil parameters (soil moisture content and soil pH). These parameters are not available for Mexico, so to project the geographic distribution of an unknown data set, it is necessary to construct models for both countries with the same ecological parameters. This required the development of a modified coverage set that included variables available for both countries. 

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