Timelines investigation tools

This chapter addresses methods and tools used successfully to identify multiple root causes. Process safety incidents are usually the result of more than one root cause. This chapter provides a structured approach for determining root causes. It details some powerful, widely used tools and techniques available to incident investigation teams including timelines, logic trees, predefined trees, checklists, and fact/hypothesis. Examples are included to demonstrate how they apply to the types of incidents readers are likely to encounter. 

Like timelines, sequence diagrams do not identify root causes, and therefore they should be used in conjunction with other tools. The mechanics of these tools are relatively easy to learn, but the investigator must exercise care to avoid locking into a preconceived scenario. For more information on sequence diagram tools refer to Chapter 9. 

Analysis, that can assist with the identihcation of causal factors. The concepts of incident causation encompassed in these tools are fundamental to the majority of investigation methodologies. (See Chapter 3 for information about the Domino Theory, System Theory, and HBT Theory.) The simplest approach involves reviewing each unplanned, unintended, or adverse item (negative event or undesirable condition) on the timeline and asking, Would the incident have been prevented or mitigated if the item had not existed If the answer is yes, then the item is a causal factor. Generally, process safety incidents involve multiple causal factors. 

Causal factor identification tools are relatively easy to learn and easy to apply to simple incidents. For more complex incidents with complicated timelines, one or more causal factors can be overlooked, ultimately leading to missed root causes. Another disadvantage is that an inexperienced investigator could potentially assume that suppositions are causal factors, when in reality the supposed event or condition did not occur. 

Like a simpler timeline, a sequence diagram does not identify root causes, and therefore it should be used as part of a combined methodology with other tools. In this respect, a sequence diagram may be used in place of the timeline within the two main incident investigation methodologies presented in this chapter. 

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