Risks compensation

A discussion of risk perception would not be complete without examining one of the most controversial concepts in the field of safety. In recent years, it has been given different labels, including risk homeostasis, risk or danger compensation, risk-offsetting behavior, and perverse compensation. Whatever the name, the basic idea is quite simple and straightforward. 

The notion of taking more risks to compensate for lower risk perception certainly seems intuitive. I bet every reader has experienced this phenomenon. I clearly remember taking more risks after donning a standard high school football uniform. With helmet and shoulder pads, I would willingly throw my body in the path of another player or leap to catch a pass. I did not perform these behaviors until perceiving security from the personal protective equipment (PPE). 

I experience risk compensation of a different sort on the tennis court. If I get ahead of my opponent by a few games, I take more chances. I will hit out for a winner or go to the net for a volley. When I get behind my opponent by two or more games, I play more conservatively from the base line. I adjust the risk level of my game depending on the circumstances—my opponent s skills and the score of the match. 

Risk compensation has seemingly universal applications. How can the phenomenon be denied  

Obviously, the notion that an individual s behavior could offset the safety benefits of PPE is extremely repugnant to a safety professional. Could this mean that efforts to make environments safer with engineering innovations are useless in the long run Are safety belts and air bags responsible for increases in vehicle speeds Does this mean laws and policy to enforce safe behavior actually provoke offsetting at-risk behavior  

IMPACT OF VEHICLE SAFETY STANDARDS ON TRAFFIC FATALITY RATES AND LIVES SAVED 

Increases in crash survival probability. Various safety devices. 

Individual net benefit approach. Econometric regression analysis. 

Estimated AnnualSafety Change in Fatality Rate Effects Occupants Nonoccupants Total 

(XK) The study includes only cars involved in accidents. 

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In the Polish NAP, the possible increase of emissions following changes in the monitoring methodology was estimated at 10-12 Mt per year. It was one of the reasons for proposing allocation above the projection level. The Commission did not agree to this risk-compensation method, and moreover rejected the proposal of using ex-post allocation adjustment. 

Aschenbrenner, M., Biehl, B. (1994). Improving safety through improved technical measures Empirieal studies regarding risk compensation proeesses in relation to anti-lock brake systems. In R. M. Trimpop G. J. S. Wilde (Eds.), Changes in accident prevention The issue of risk compensation. Groningen, The Netherlands Styx Publications. 

Risk compensation - taking greater risks as a result of the perception that safety... 

Table 3-2 also presents calculations for risk compensation using the continuous version of the model. Results for the discrete version are comparable. Risk compensation is the slope of the wage function evaluated for a 1 in 1,000 increase in the probability of a work-related injury. Risk compensation ranges from 1,054 to 1,315 or from 3 to 4 percent of wages in Table 3-2. Thaler and Rosen (1975) estimated that approximately a 3 percent increase in wages is needed to get a worker to accept a 0.001 incremental probability of death. In his review article Smith (1979) reported percentage differentials in risk compensation across studies ranging from 1 to 20 percent, with the majority in the 2 to 4 percent range. Thus, our numerical simulations produce a compensation for the risk of a work-related injury that corresponds well with estimates in the empirical literature.

Risk Compensation Through Human Self-Control... 

The risk compensation hypothesis derives from the results of field experiments in which drivers performed their tasks under observation. Wilde expresses ii as follows The level of perceived risk minus the driver s effort to reduce subjective risk—i.e., the degree of caution—is a constant. This constant represents the degree of tolerated risk. 

At this point it can be seen what the risk compensation theory should express it is possible to compensate for risks arising from human defects through the will to achieve safety. Indeed many elderly people are very careful to conserve the faculties still left to them and thus remain fully... 

Risk compensation in compulsory pooling and unitization orders... 

Aschenbrenner, M. and Biehl, B. (1994), Improved Safety through Improved Technical Measures , Empirical Studies Regarding Risk Compensation Processes in Relation to Anti-Lock Braking Systems. In R. M. Trimpop and G.J.S. Wilde, Challenges to Accident Prevention The Issue of Risk Compensation Behaviour, Groningen, the Netherlands Styx Publishing. 

Blomquist (1986) claims that risk compensation is a natural part of human behaviour where individuals pursue multiple goals with limited resources, and shows that this can be described with a simple utility model of driver behaviour. In this positive economic model, driver safety effort is determined by a balance between reduced risk and increased disutility cost. Changes that affect the balance induce drivers to change their own safety efforts. Under plausible conditions, a change in exogenous safety, which is beyond driver control, causes a compensatory change in driver effort in the opposite direction (Blomquist, 1986). 

Bj0mskau, T. 1994. Hypotheses on risk compensation. In Proceedings of the Conference of Road Safety in Europe and Strategic Highway Research Program (SHRP), 4. Linkoping Swedish Road and Transport Research Instimte, 81-98. 

Evans, W. N. and Graham, J. D. 1991. Risk reduction or risk compensation The case of mandatory safety-belt use laws. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 4, 61-73. 

Overall, it was concluded that the effect of the feedback loop was to counteract the benefits of safety countermeasures [t]he present model demonstrates a manner how the expected gain may be lost—the subjective risk is attenuated by, e.g. changes in the traffic environment which make it appear safer. Under such circumstances, the driver can drive faster and overtake other cars more frequently before subjective risk is experienced (p. 257). On the other hand, if a treatment increased subjective risk, then benefits might accrue. Here, we have a proposition of risk compensation. 

Streff, F.M. and Geller, E.S. 1988. An experimental test of risk compensation Between-subject versus within-subject analyses. Accident Analysis and Prevention, 20(4), 277-287. 

Not even the introduction of the automobile has made a major impact on the per capita accident rate. An Australian researcher, who noted the high death rate associated with horses and buggies before the arrival of the automobile, studied traffic death trends in New South Wales from the first to the last decade of the twentieth century. His patterns of findings are very similar to what had been found in the United Kingdom, and thus [...] the conclusion is drawn that there is no evidence that could cause us to question the existence of risk compensating behaviour in New South Wales road users (Knott, 1994). 

Many of the authors in the studies dealing with the effects of health and safety interventions in these areas mention risk compensation, behavioural adjustment, or risk homeostasis to explain their findings. As risk compensation and risk homeostasis are synonyms (Wilde, 1974, 1978, 1994, p. 29), is there anything else that can account for behavioural adaptation ... 

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