Rare event methodology

An aside here is in order. The rare event methodology is entwined with the calculation of rate constants in gas phase and solution reactions. In general, the rate constant k can be expressed as... 

This section attempts to briefly introduce the main concepts of the subset simulation as an advanced stochastic simulation method for estimation of small probabilities corresponding to rare failure events. However, a detailed introductory description of methodology can be found in the chapter Subset Simulation Method for Rare Event Estimation An Introduction of the general section Reliability and Robustness of the Encyclopedia of Earthquake Engineering. 

Abstract Computer simulations of molecular processes such as nucleation in first-order phase transitions or the folding of a protein are often complicated by widely disparate time scales related to important but rare events. Here, we will review several recently developed computational methods designed to address the rare-events problem. In doing so, we will focus on the transition path sampling methodology. 

Contribution to an International Network and a Standardized Methodology for the Investigation of Natural Disasters to Learn from Rare Severe Weather Events (like Ice Storm 98 ). 

If the event is rare and the exposure combination is very specific, the cause of the adverse health event may be inferred from a case-series study. In most situations, however, it is necessary to compare cases with a group of controls to identify risk factors. Thns the major disadvantage of a case-series study is the lack of a comparison gronp. However, recent methodologic advances in the analysis of case-series data allow the estimation of relative incidence withont the nse of controls. ... 

In computational chemistry, molecular dynamics (MD) is the most widely used methodology to study the kinetic and thermodynamic properties of atomic and molecular systems [1-3]. These properties are obtained by solving the microscopic equations of motion for the system under consideration. Due to the short time step that is needed to keep numerical stability, the time scales that can be reached in these simulations are not long, typically on the order of nanosecond to microsecond depending on the complexity of the system. For many systems, like biomolecules, this simulation time is not enough to sample conformational space or to study rare but important events. 

Many important adverse events are rare or unexpected or unpredictable, and no single methodological approach can successfully capture the problem in its entirety. I believe that multiple analytical techniques and close cooperation between different drug safety research groups are required to help recognize the exact nature of the... 

Application of the full array of CPQRA techniques allows a quantitative review of a faciUty s risks, ranging from frequent, low-consequence incidents to rare, major events, using a uniform and consistent methodology. Having identified process risks, CPQRA techniques can help focus risk control studies. Hie largest risk contributors can be identified, and recommendations and decisions can be made for remedial measures on a consistent and objective basis. 

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