Inflation-indexed government bonds

On a hold-to-maturity basis, as we ve said, inflation-linked government bonds provide as close an approximation to a guaranteed real return as is currently available. If we can assume the government is credit risk-free, then there remain only two modest reasons for us to couch the above statement with the cautionary nse of the word approximation. There will inevitably always be a small conpon reinvestment risk and also a small degree of real value uncertainty becanse of the indexation lag. 

In the United States, Canada, and New Zealand, indexed bonds can be stripped, allowing coupon and principal cash flows to be traded separately. This obviates the need for specific issues of zero-coupon indexed securities, since the market can create products such as deferred-payment indexed bonds in response to specific investor demand. In markets allowing stripping of indexed government bonds, a strip is simply a single cash flow with an inflation adjustment. An exception to this is in New Zealand, where the cash flows are separated into three components the principal, the principal inflation adjustment, and the inflation-linked coupons—the latter being an indexed annuity. 

Bonds that have part or all of their cash flows linked to an inflation index form an important segment of several government bond markets. In the United Kingdom, the first index-linked bonds were issued in 1981 and at the end of 2012 they accounted for approximately 25% of outstanding nominal value in the gilt market. Index-linked bonds were also introduced in the United States Treasury market but are more established in Australia, Canada,... 

An index-linked bond has its coupon or maturity value or sometimes both linked to a specific index. When governments issue index-linked bonds, the cash flows are linked to a price index such as consumer or commodity prices. Corporations have also issued index-linked bonds that are connected to either an inflation index or a stock market index. For example, Kredit Fuer Wiederaufbau, a special purpose bank in Denmark, issued a floating-rate note in March 2003 whose coupon rate will be linked to the Eurozone CPI (excluding tobacco) beginning in September 2004. Inflation-indexed bonds are detailed in Chapter 8. 

We have sketched out a couple of reasons why governments issue index-linked bonds already. We also said how the removal of inflation risk is valuable for the borrower, as it is for the investor, and earlier we described how in some countries rampant inflation resulted in a complete loss of investor confidence in nominal government debt, requiring the creation of an inflation-linked bond market out of necessity. However, there are other arguments why governments should issue linkers, and the reasons already given need to be added to, expanded upon and broken down into different subarguments. 

Certain countries have markets in bonds whose coupon or final redemption payment, or both, are linked to their consumer price indexes. Generally, the most liquid markets in these inflation-indexed, or index-linked, debt instruments are the ones for government issues. Investors experiences with the bonds differ, since the securities were introduced at different times in different markets and so are designed differently. In some markets, for instance, only the coupon payment, and not the redemption value, is index-linked. This makes comparisons in terms of factors such as yield difficult and has in the past hindered arbitrageurs seeking to exploit real yield differences. This chapter highlights the basic concepts behind indexed bonds and how their structures may differ from market to market. 

Annuity indexation. Indexed-annuity bonds have been issued in Australia, although not by the central government. They pay a fixed annuity payment plus a varying element that compensates for inflation. These bonds have the shortest duration and highest reinvestment risk of all index-linked debt securities. 

The higher yields of the conventional bonds compared with those of the index-linked bonds represent compensation for the effects of inflation. Bondholders will choose to hold index-linked bonds instead of conventional ones if they are worried about unexpected inflation. An individual s view on future inflation will depend on several factors, including the current macroeconomic environment and the credibility of the monetary authorities, be they the central bank or the government. Fund manj ers take their views of inflation, among other factors, into account in deciding how much of the TIPS and how much of the conventional Treasury to hold. Investment managers often hold indexed bonds in a portfolio j ainst... 

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