How Can Uncertainty Analysis Methods Be Used Efficiently and Effectively in Decision Making

4 HOW CAN UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS METHODS BE USED EFFICIENTLY AND EFFECTIVELY IN DECISION MAKING  

Reducing uncertainty is usually expensive. Therefore, an iterative process should be used to conduct the minimal amount of analyses that are necessary to characterize and reduce uncertainty to the point where an informed decision can be made. The point where a decision can be made with acceptable uncertainty will depend on the threshold of acceptability and threshold of unacceptability.  

The type of decision that needs to be made will influence the choice of uncertainty analysis method. Consequently, the process must include a dialogue between the risk assessor and decision maker throughout the risk assessment. The uncertainty associated with the risk assessment must be clearly communicated so that all parties involved in the risk assessment process understand it. 

In a screening-level risk assessment, interval or bounding analyses, which put upper and lower bounds on risk, may be sufficient to reach a decision of acceptable risk or unacceptable risk provided the bounds are a reflection of the true limits of uncertainty. 

A process is outlined for reaching the desired level of certainty while minimizing resource requirements and maximizing efficiency  

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