Forecasting capabilities

Both Aviv (2001) and Aviv (2002a) study how the relationship between the supply chain members forecasting capabilities impact the difference between... 

We suppose that casual ordering of the reaction system, in spite of its conditional nature, expands substantially the predictability of the kinetic model as compared with the purely empiric approach. Obviously, the forecasting capabilities are strongly dependent on the fact, to what extent the kinetic model of a chemical reaction is based on real causes. 

In the traditional process the purchase order is the key impulse for the supplier whereas in this model the key input is the rolling forecast. The challenges of the implementation come from forecasting capabilities, openness and trast. The utilization of modem ICT technology also creates both challenges and advantages. 

The next step of Whirlpool was to push their forecasting capability in the global supply chain further by implementing CPHi process. With CPFR the company can use i2 software supported by a web-based network to share their forecasts with trading partners (such as Wal-Mart and Sears) and collaborate on the exceptions. Within 30 days of the launch of CPFR the forecast accuracy error was cut from 100 to 45 per cent. To put in perspective, a one-point improvement in forecast accuracy across the board reduced the total finished goods position of the company by several million dollars. 

The next step would be to go further from seismic to prediction. This implies that a 4D history matching is successfully done. The high quality of the history matching is a prerequisite to assess the reliability of the reservoir model and therefore its forecasting capability. 

The only way to avert this dilemma is for the community to develop and utilize its capability of forecasting the advent and persistence of the stagnation conditions during which an episode occurs and its capability of computing pollution concentration buildup under stagnation conditions. The details of how these forecasts and computations are made are discussed... 

The demand planning module is used for short-term and midterm sales planning. It covers basic statistical forecasting methods, but is also capable of taking additional aspects into account. For example, these may be promotions in shortterm sales planning or the consideration of product lifecycles in midterm sales planning. 

Efficient Consumer Response (ECR) and Collaborative Planning, Forecasting and Replenishment (CPFR) both are operations models in the consumer goods industry to ensure delivery capability and avoid stockouts based on an automated replenishment of outlets using product inventory, historic and/or planned sales information at the point-of-sales (POS). CPFR focuses on a close cooperation between retailer and manufacturer. ECR focus on the customer-facing reaction on customer responses in logistics, sales and promotions. 

A feasibility study on the application of H-NMR petroleum product characterization to predict physicochemical properties of feeds and catalyst-feed interactions has been performed. The technique satisfactorily estimates many feed properties as well as catalyst-feed interactions to forecast products yield. There are, however, limitations that have to be understood when using the H-NMR method. The technique, in general, is not capable either to estimate the level of certain contaminants such as nitrogen, sulfur, nickel, and vanadium when evaluating feed properties or the effect of these contaminants on products yields while testing catalyst-feed interactions. 

When the attractiveness of new products is evaluated, either for submitting an offer or for inclusion in the R D program, manufacturing costs have to be estimated on the basis of a laboratory synthesis procedure. This is best done by breaking down the process into unit operations, the standard costs of which have been determined previously. Care has to be taken to estimate the time required for each step of a process. Thus a liquid-liquid extraction can take more time than the chemical reaction. The capability of a fine-chemical company to make dependable manufacturing cost forecasts is a distinct competitive advantage. 

Theoretical estimates, however, forecast that diamond is stable up to 23 million atmospheres with respect to any phase transition, Although plastic deformation would limit its capability, predictions for the diamond anvil cell are for pressures somewhere between 5 and 23 million atmospheres. 

In determining which model to use, the analyst needs to determine what outputs or results are needed to successfully accomplish the desired objectives of the study. Factors that should be considered include the level of regional detail, the forecast period, the pollutants to be considered, and the sectoral detail desired. Available funds and resources for running a model also need to be taken into account. For example, if a control strategy affecting all emission sectors is proposed, then a model examining only, say industrial emissions may not be sufficient. Interaction between emission source sectors and the capability of the models needs to be considered. 

The purpose of this paper is to indicate the capabilities of the HFIR for transplutonium element production and particularly to dwell on the mathematical techniques involved in forecasting the composition of irradiated target materials. Also described are some of the uses to which such forecasts are put. Early work along this line was published by Burch, Arnold, and Chetham-Strode (6), providing the basis for design of HFIR and TRU. 

Forecast the crude slate that would likely be used to meet the forecast demand. This is determined by an analysis of domestic reserves, historical production trends, and estimates of new production. The shortfall between domestic production and refinery crude runs is met by imported crudes which are selected on the basis of production/export capabilities, logistical factors, and historical trends. 

Data assimilation (DA) is important for daily chemistry forecasts, but it also is a challenge. At the moment there are much fewer stations with chemistry observations than meteorological observations, and the observations from these stations may not always be available in real time. Also, the gradients in chemical species often are very sharp, which the current observation network and data assimilation schemes are not capable of representing. And last but not least, it is difficult to determine the assimilation increments with so many possible species and so few detailed observations. This is why ECMWF has limited the chemistry in their model and data assimilation to five species (in addition to the cost in computer power). 

These satellites now give three-dimensional data to high-speed computers for faster and more precise weather predictions. Computers are capable of plotting the observation data, and solving huge models not only for near-term weather forecasting, but also climatic models on time scales of centuries. Predictions still contain degrees of uncertainty, computers still have their capacity limits and the models used still contain many uncertainties. Advances in prediction reliability are critical be-... 

Advances in the manufacture of flexible fused silica WCOT columns will almost certainly extend the applications of GC by virtue of their high-resolution capability, while the advent of sophisticated, computerized detectors forecast the improvement in sensitivity and specificity. The use of chiral stationary phases for the resolution of enantiomers is becoming an increasingly important topic in pharmaceutical analyses. The range and availability of various liquid phases for chiral analysis by GC is bound to make this technique extremely valuable for the assay of pharmaceutical raw materials as well as for use in biological fluids. 

A similar examination of feed and product prices along the value chain of a given chemical can usually provide valuable insights into the best method of forecasting. No method is perfect, and anyone capable of accurately predicting commodity prices would be well advised to pursue a more lucrative career than chemical engineering. For process design purposes, it is usually sufficient to show that the prices used for optimization and economic analysis are realistic and consistent with consensus views of the market. 

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