Emission forecasting plants

Figure 1. Emission forecasts under alternative utility coal plant lifetime assumptions.

Since this estimated share pattern was derived mainly from projection of trends (particularly long term trends), it seems appropriate to focus on oil and speculate as to how possible future events might alter its forecast future role. Events related to pollution control tend to indicate increases in petroleum demand. The use of lead free gasoline, for instance, requires additional refinery processing, which in turn consumes more petroleum fuel. Increasingly tighter controls on sulfur dioxide emissions from thermal-electric plants will cause a shift from coal to low sulfur fuel oil if there is no economic flue-gas desulfurization to cope with coals sulfur content. 

The concept, presented in the paper, forecasts a big profit when using new coal-fired power plants without any atmospheric emissions and injection of high pressure carbon dioxide, produced in the plant, into old oil fields for almost total oil extraction. With a capacity of 14 GW in Europe it is possible to extract 300 Mt of oil. The concept is undoubtedly worth being funded for further studies for the design of a demonstration plant. 

First of all, hardship rules were created in order to find answers to specific cases (e.g. in the glass industry) for a series of special factual situations. If the special and very specific conditions are met, the respective plants can benefit from an allocation on the basis of forecasted instead of historical emissions. However, the overall sum of the allowances, including those to be allocated as a result of these specific hardship rules was limited to 3 million EUA for the overall period of 2005-2007. If this sum is exceeded, the special allocations in the context of the special rules concerning cases of hardship would have to be correspondingly reduced. 

The second method proposed, the change of regime method, was based on a closer tracking of power plant s emissions. Allocation would be based on plant capacity and on forecasts of both equivalent hours of operation and specific emission factor by technology mix (combination of technology and fuel type). More specifically allocation to plant n for the year t would be equal to the sum of two components ... 

Cement sector - allocation proportional to forecast production in 2005-2007 sugar sector -proportional to production in 2003 coke sector - proportional to forecast production capacities in 2005-2007 public power plants - allocation proportional to weighted values of three factors base emission (50%), electrical capacity in 2003 (25%) and maximum utilisation rate in years 1999-2002 (25%). 

The EIA forecast also predicts that existing coal plants will be used more often. From 2001 to 2025, the EIA estimates a 40% increase in coal consumption for power generation. This could increase U.S. greenhouse gas emissions by 10%. 

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