Electric utilities future

L. S. Hyman, A.merica s Electric Utilities Past, Present, and Future, Pubhc Utihties Reports Inc., 1983. 

At present there is much speculation about the long-term future of EVs. Electric vehicles could dramatically lessen U.S. dependence on imported oil and help solve air quality problems, yet also will create new problems and challenges for electric utility system operators. 

The paper discusses operating limitations imposed by the turbine exhaust element and the alternatives presently available to the electric utility industry. It also presents tools for estimating dry tower plot area, fan power and circulating pump power requirements. It shows the savings in fan power which can be expected with a decrease in turbine-generator load and ambient air temperatures. It discusses expected maintenance costs and the owner s possible exposure with a large 1000 MW dry cooling tower system. The paper ends with an evaluation of the potential for lower dry tower system costs in the future. 12 refs, cited. 

The confusion which has resulted from Federal and State Air Quality laws has prevented electric utilities from making future commitments for coal. As a result, coal companies are not making the commitments to new coal mines either. Many of the new mines which are listed as planned in current forecasts ha e already been delayed due to environmental suits and other restraints. Examples are the Kaiparowitz project in Utah and a number of other Wyoming coal projects. 

Just how much methane is going to be in the market in the future Just what is going to be the impact of the Coal Conversion Act which, simply stated, requires that industries and electric utilities shall not build new facilities to burn natural gas or to burn petroleum What is the future market for methane ... 

Two low-cost policies can jump-start this shift a renewable portfolio standard (rps) and a cap on co2 emissions in the electricity sector. An rps that requires 20 percent of U.S. electricity to be renewable by 2020 has very little net cost to the country and the huge benefit of reducing future natural gas prices.4 Under such an rps, electricity prices would be lower in 2020 than they are today, according to a 2001 study by the Energy Information Administration.5 Caps on electric utility emissions of sulfur dioxide, oxides of nitrogen, and mercury have been proposed by many policy makers because they will dramatically improve air quality and save the lives of tens of thousands of Americans. Analysis by the epa has shown that a relatively modest additional cap on grid co2 emissions—returning to 2001 levels by 2013—would add a mere two-tenths of a penny per kilowatt-hour in 2020, about 3 percent of electricity costs.6... 

This type of project has application either as grid support in developed electricity markets or as stand-alone small power systems for off-grid and developing-country applications. Looking to the future, projects like this can serve not only as local electric utilities that can operate independently from central generation and transmission, but whose stored hydrogen can serve as a source of transport fuel. 

Morgan, C. and Shadbegian, R. (2003). Environmental Justice and Emission Trading Evidence from the Electric Utility Industry, presented at Resources for the Future (February), EPA s National Center of Environmental Economics Seminar Series (March) and Clark University (April). 

United Technologies Corporation has also built the very large (4.8 MW) demonstration PAFC units in Manhattan and Tokyo for the electricity utilities. These are designed for peak generation near the load centers so as to smooth the demand on the transmission and distribution systems. Base load generation by means of fuel cells appears to be well in the future as the cost targets are such that only advanced, high temperature fuel cells are likely to be economic and these have severe developmental problems of a materials science nature yet to be solved. 

It is difficult to be at all quantitative as to when and to what degree these various possible applications will come to pass. Among the many factors which will determine the future energy scene are technical factors (advances in fuel cells, electric vehicles, electrolyzers, LH2 fuelled aircraft, etc.), environment factors (SO2 emissions, mining of fossil fuels, etc.) and, of course, the ubiquitous economics and politics which control all major human activities. What does seem clear is that, in the early years, synthetic fluid fuels will be manufactured by steam reforming, both for economic reasons and for institutional reasons associated with the expertise of the petroleum and gas industries. Electrolytic hydrogen will enter upon the scene more slowly, as it will be dependent upon the availability of cheap or surplus electricity and will tend to be produced by the chemical industry or electricity utilities rather than by the fuel industries. Moreover, its first use is likely to be for chemical synthesis, rather than as a fuel. 

The cost of fuel for generating steam and electricity is usually a major one. The efficiency from fuel to finished utility must be determined. The choice of fuel can become a major study in many circumstances. Future availability and price must be considered. 

---