Economic risk factor

Figure 6.3 Risk Model II plot of expected profit for different levels of risk as represented by the economic risk factor 0n and the operational risk factor 02.

Most of our subjects are middle to upper-middle class white infants, for whom socioeconomic status and quality of caregiving are at most only weakly associated with prenatal or postnatal blood lead levels (Bellinger et al, 1985b, 1986b). They do not display the typical association between demographic/ economic risk factors and increased lead exposure seen in most samples. As a consequence, the likelihood of observing a spurious association between elevated lead exposure and poor outcome is lower in this sample than it is in most samples recruited to study the developmental impact of lead. 

For the inhabitants of the exclusion zone, situated in a forested region without well-developed economic and social infrastructures, it is of interest to estimate the relative contributions to internal exposure of forest food (berries and mushrooms) and conventional agricultural food (potatoes and milk). Some specialist studies have assumed that forest food represents only a small part of the diet of inhabitants of the exclusion zone, but we would suggest that in fact, it plays a major role. Typically, the consumption of forest food contributes 50% of the internal exposure dose, while for some critical population groups, it can exceed 80%. The definition of the spatial variation in pollution, the prevailing ecological conditions, and the diet should allow a scientifically-based prediction to be made of the internal exposure dose to the local population, and will help to identify the major risk factors within a certain time period following the Chernobyl catastrophe. 

Determining fireproofing needs based on the probability of an incident considering industry experience, the potential impact of damage for each fire-scenario envelope (see 7.3.2.2), and technical, economic, environmental, regulatory, and human risk factors. 

Numerous risk factors contribute to the global burden of disease. Genetics, economics, social, lifestyle, and nutritional factors, as well as environmental chemical exposures, play large roles and are discussed in the following sections. 

WHO estimates that over 30% of the global burden of disease can be attributed to environmental factors and that 40% of this burden falls on children under five years of age, who account for only 10% of the world s population (WHO, 2004a). At least three million children under five years of age die annually due to environment-related illnesses. Environmental risk factors act in concert and are exacerbated by adverse social and economic conditions, particularly poverty and malnutrition. 

Methods for including the cost of capital in economic analyses have been discussed in Chap. 7. Although the management and stockholders of each company must establish the company s characteristic cost of capital, the simplest approach is to assume that investment of capital is made at a hypothetical cost or rate of return equivalent to the total profit or rate of return over the full expected life of the particular project. This method has the advantage of putting the profitability analysis of all alternative investments on an equal basis, thereby permitting a clear comparison of risk factors. This method is particularly useful for preliminary estimates, but it may need to be refined further to take care of income-tax effects for final evaluation. 

Example 5 Comparison of alternative investments by different profitability methods. A company has three alternative investments which are being considered. Because all three investments are for the same type of unit and yield the same service, only one of the investments can be accepted. The risk factors are the same for all three cases. Company policies, based on the current economic situation, dictate that a minimum annual return on the original investment of 15 percent after taxes must be predicted for any unnecessary investment with interest on investment not included as a cost. (This may be assumed to mean that other equally sound investments yielding a 15 percent return after taxes are available.) Company policies also dictate that, where applicable, straight-line depreciation is used and, for time-value of money interpretations, end-of-year cost and profit analysis is used. Land value and prestartup costs can be ignored. 

The infection rate among the population of a country correlates with age, hygiene standards, socio-economic status and individual risk factors (drug addiction, homosexuality, close contact with infected persons, etc.). Men and women are subject to the same frequency of infection, irrespective of age or race and seasonal or regional factors. In Germany, there has been a rapid decrease in natural immunity, because far fewer juveniles become infected with HAV today. Consequently, when people contract the infection at a more advanced age, there is a higher complication rate and greater mortality (2.7% vs. 0.004%). 

A new topic for discussion is risk assessment and risk management. This subject covers the origin, transport, fate and efforts of chemical pollutants in the environment and the risk factors involve versus the social, political and economic realities. 

Numerous risk factors for nonadherence have been identified. Clearly, nonadherence is a multifactorial problem, and a host of contributing social, economic, medical, and behavioral factors have been identified.As shown in Table 1, some risk factors for nonadherence relate to the disease (e.g., a chronic or asymptomatic illness), others relate to the patient (forgetfulness, sensory impairment, and economic problems), and still others relate to the drug regimen (concerns about cost, real or perceived adverse effects, or dosing schedule). 

In a cohort study of 6,000 children that investigated the effect of maternal smoking together with socio-economic status and low birth order on the risk of allergic disease, maternal smoking was found to be an additional risk factor for wheeze primarily in low socio-economic groups [293(Ib)]. 

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