Software Crystal Ball

This is the method used by the commercial software packages Crystal Ball and RISK . The method is ideally suited to computers as the description of the method will reveal. Suppose we are trying to combine two independent variables, say gross reservoir thickness and net-to-gross ratio (the ratio of the net sand thickness to the gross thickness of the reservoir section) which need to be multiplied to produce a net sand thickness. We have described the two variables as follows ... 

The most familiar estimation procedure is to assume that the population mean and variance are equal to the sample mean and variance. More generally, the method of moments (MOM) approach is to equate sample moments (mean, variance, skewness, and kurtosis) to the corresponding population. Software such as Crystal Ball (Oracle Corporation, Redwood Shores, CA) uses MOM to fit the gamma and beta distributions (see also Johnson et al. 1994). Use of higher moments is exemplified by fitting of the... 

The popularity of Monte Carlo for risk-based uncertainty analysis is somewhat driven by the fact that Monte Carlo is fundamentally easy to implement, particularly with the advent of the personal computer, and graphically based software like Crystal Ball (www.decisioneering.com) and Risk (www.palisade. com/risk.html). The availability of such software systems generally promotes the use of uncertainty analysis in ecological risk assessments, reducing the amount of mathematical and statistical knowledge required of the user to implement the... 

These simulation models use probabilistic approaches, but are much more complex than the simply Monte Carlo models described above that have been used in exposure assessments. Monte Carlo analysis has been applied to simple spreadsheet calculations of dose using add-in software programs such as Risk or Crystal Ball. These analyses seek to understand the uncertainty and variation in the predictions of these simple dose models. In contrast, these new models are stand-alone computer... 

Formaldehyde in 95 samples of lady pajamas collected in Chinese market was detected and distribution characteristics of formaldehyde content was analyzed using Oracle Crystal Ball 11.1 software and results showed that the formaldehyde concentration conforms to the Max Extreme distribution most. The risk assement model of formaldehyde in domestic textile was established using the Monte Carlo simulation technique. The model was applied to the practice and the result showed that cumulative probability of risk of being exposed to formaldehyde in pajamas through the skin less than 10 is 98.69%, so the risk can be ignored. 

Figure 2 The Project MAC kludge display system (foreground). Note the crystal ball in front of the CRT used to interact with the software control program running on the host computer. A device for viewing images in stereo based on a half-silvered mirror can be seen mounted above the display. This unit could be pivoted down in front of the face of the CRT to view stereo images...

In the past, it would take months or years to determine the structure of a protein molecule now it takes a day or even a few hours. Since the wavelength can be changed easily and the intensity of an x-ray is much brighter, more data can be collected. By analyzing the diffraction pattern using software, it becomes much simpler to make a map of the electron density in the crystal. Programs are available or may be devised to have the shape and the structure displayed on a computer screen as a mass of squiggly lines, ribbons, and little balls. 

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