Baltic Climate Change

Without the pretence of being complete or representative, in Section 5.2 we report a number of typical mean seasonal cycles. They should suffice for certain basic estimates, but must be rendered more precisely for detailed studies. Typical averaging periods are the past 50 or 100 years, but this depends on the availability of the particular data. Since the water residence time of the entire Baltic region is about 30 years, climatic considerations should preferably be based on long-term series exceeding this internal timescale. In Section 5.3, we briefly consider certain trends observed in these data sets. Local trends may be different in summer or winter due to the seasonally different weather regimes over the Baltic Sea. 

State and Evolution of the Baltic Sea, 1952-2005, edited by Rainer Feistel, Gunther Nausch, and Norbert Wasmund Copyright 2008 John Wiley Sons, Inc. 

Perhaps even more than the averages, many of these trend values may depend sensitively 

Superimposed on the basic state and its linear trends. Section 5.4, the main part of this chapter, focuses on fluctuations, in particular, on quasi-periodic signals on multiyear- and decadal scales. Such fluctuations are no longer a local phenomenon, they rather posses regional, hemispheric, or even global signatures. Following Defant (1921) and Schonwiese et al. (1994) for the analysis of fluctuations on such timescales, four main mechanisms mentioned below must be taken into account  

Associated quasi-periods between 6 and 8 years are typical for the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), while the frequently observed cycle of about 14 years is already of global nature. Finally, derived from robust long-term data series of the Baltic Sea, decadal changes are considered, likely associated with global anomalies in the worldwide energy transport controlling the entire climate system. 

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Storch, H. V., 2008. BALTEX Assessment of Climate Change for the Baltic Sea Basin (BACC). Springer-Verlag, Berlin. 

Baroclinic summer inflows seem to be an indication for a new quality in long-term behavior of the Baltic Sea. The possible relation of their appearance to global climatic change (Schar and Jendritzky, 2004) is an open scientific question. 

Stigebrand, A., Gustafsson, B. G., 2003. Response of the Baltic Sea to climate change—theory and observations. Journal of Sea Research, 49, 243-256. 

Harff, J., Frischbutter, A., Lampe, R., Meyer, M., 2001. Sea Level Change in the Baltic Sea Interrelation of Climatic and Geological Processes, In Gerhard J., Harrison W. E., Hanson, B. M. (Eds.), Geological Perspectives of Climate Change. AAPG Studies in Geology Vol. 47, Tulsa, Oklahoma, pp. 231-250. 

Changes in phytoplankton composition are indicators for a changing environment. Two major forces have altered the Baltic ecosystem recently eutrophication and climatic change. The abiotic factors related with these major changes are introduced in Section 15.2. 

Ojaveer, E., Kalejs, M., 2005. The impact of climate change on the adaptation of marine fish in the Baltic Sea. ICES Journal of Marine Science, 62, 1492-1500. 

Omstedt, A. and L., Nyberg, 1996. Response of Baltic Sea ice to seasonal, interannual forcing and climate change. Tellus, 48A, 644-662. 

Harff, J., Lemke, W., Lampe, R., Liith, E, Liibke, H., Meyer, M., Tauber, E, Schmolcke, U., 2007. The Baltic Sea Coast—A model of interrelations between geosphere, chmate and anthroposphere. In Harff, J., Hay, W. W., Tetzlaff, D. M., (Eds.), Coastline Change—Interrelation of Climate and Geological Processes. The Geological Society of America, Spec. Paper No. 426, pp. 133-142. 

EFFECTS OF CLIMATE- AND FISHERY-INDUCED CHANGES ON BALTIC FISH STOCKS, AND ECOSYSTEM STRUCTURE... 

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