Atmospheric pollutants, modeling future emissions

GRAVES ET AL. Modeling Future Emissions of Atmospheric Pollutants... 

Pollutants emitted by various sources entered an air parcel moving with the wind in the model proposed by Eschenroeder and Martinez. Finite-difference solutions to the species-mass-balance equations described the pollutant chemical kinetics and the upward spread through a series of vertical cells. The initial chemical mechanism consisted of 7 species participating in 13 reactions based on sm< -chamber observations. Atmospheric dispersion data from the literature were introduced to provide vertical-diffusion coefficients. Initial validity tests were conducted for a static air mass over central Los Angeles on October 23, 1968, and during an episode late in 1%8 while a special mobile laboratory was set up by Scott Research Laboratories. Curves were plotted to illustrate sensitivity to rate and emission values, and the feasibility of this prediction technique was demonstrated. Some problems of the future were ultimately identified by this work, and the method developed has been applied to several environmental impact studies (see, for example, Wayne et al. ). 

The role of biomass in the natural carbon cycle is not well understood, and in the light of predictions of a future atmospheric energy balance crisis caused by carbon dioxide accumulation, in turn the result of an exponential increase in the consumption of carbon fuel, the apparent lack of concern by scientists and policy makers is most troubling. Yet there is no other single issue before us in energy supply which will require action long before the worst effects of excess production will be apparent. The only satisfactory model is the action taken by the R D community with respect to the SST in nitric oxide potential and chloro-halocarbon emissions, when it was realised that the stratospheric ozone layer was vulnerable to interference. Almost all other responses to pollution" have been after definitive effects have become apparent. 

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