Vulnerability modeling

Eisenberg, N. A., C. J. Lynch, and R. J. Breeding. 1975. Vulnerability model. A simulation system for assessing damage resulting bom marine spills. U.S. Department of Commerce Report No. ADIA015/245. Washington National Technical Information Service. 

N. A. Eisenberg, Vulnerability Model A Simulation System for Assessing Damage Resulting from Marine Spills, NTIS Report AD-A015-245 (Springfield, VA National Technical Information Service, 1975). 

Volume 5. M. Marchand, Modelling Coastal Vulnerability - Design and Evaluation of a Vulnerability Model for Tropical Storms and Floods Volume 4. S.A.M. Karstens, Bridging boundaries. Making Choices in Multi-actor Policy Analysis on Water Management. 

It should be noted that in the case of lightning events, it is not possible at present to obtain a comprehensive quantification of the hazard and risk associated to these events, but a method for the preliminary identi fication of the possible damage to equipment and of the potential consequences of the release of hazardous materials was developed. In fact, the unavailability of detailed vulnerability models still hinders the implementation of a more detailed procedure. Current work of the authors is dedicated to this issue. 

Eisenberg, Vulnerability Model. A simulation system for assessingdamageresultingfrom MarineSpliss. AD-AOlj-245. 

Both for software vulnerability models and software reliability models, the parameters will be obtained from collected data using either the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) or least scpiare estimation (LSE) method. 

Figure 8.2 Competitive Advantage - Strategic Vulnerability Model Source Lonsdale, C., and Cox, A., Outsourcing. Copyright 1998. Earlsgate Press.

Uncertainties in Consequence Modeling. Uncertainties in consequence estimation arise due to uncertainties in modeling the souree term, the migration of a hazard away form the hazard source (hazard modeling), the effeets of a level of hazard on receptors (vulnerability modeling), and assumptions made about the degree of protection afforded to receptors. As discussed here, these uneertainties are for the most part treated conservatively. 

Tsao, C. K., and W. W. Perr (1979). Report CG-D-38-79 Mbtd ications to the Vulnerability Model A Simulation System for Assessing Damage Resulting From Marine Spills Final Report. U.S. Coast Guard. 

U.S. Coast Guard (1980). Study to Alodify the Vulnerability Model rfibe Risk Management System—Report CG-D-22-80. Washington, DC U.S. Department of Transportation. 

Modeling using Forest Fire reproduced the observed quantitative behavior of the shock initiation by short pulses of PBX-9404 and Composition B. The energy available from shocked and decomposing explosive that has not detonated is important for vulnerability modeling. 

Genetic contribution and importance of triggers (stress vulnerability model)... 

Figure 3. Impact/vulnerability modelling (links between H T and infrastrueture assets).

Douglas, J. 2007. Physical vulnerability modelling in natural hazard risk assessment. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sd., 7,283 288. 

The automated generation of the vulnerability model is a tricky step as we believe that it may be successfully implemented only if proper modelling guidelines and patterns are defined and implemented within the transformational approach, in order to guarantee both the feasibility of the translation and the correctness of the resulting model. Hence, in the next Section a general structure for the vulnerability model is proposed, and a specific realisation by means of Petri Net patterns is described. Of course, the sub-nets convey the fact that they must be used within an automated process, as a trade-off must be made between the modelling style and the effectiveness of the model transformation. 

At the state, we have chosen the GSPN formalism to instantiate the modules defined above, because the proposed vulnerability model requires to describe both static and dynamic features of the system as well as timing information. 

Further research effort will be addressed in the following directions. First, this work is a starting point to build libraries of PN patterns able to consider more complex situations. The usage of these patterns will also be supported by transformational approaches for their automatic generation from high level models as successMly done in the reliability field [5]. Moreover, optimization algorithms may exploit the solution of vulnerability models as hemistics [17] in order to tune the parameters of protection mechanisms (response times, failme rates, number of replicas, etc.). 

Marrone, S., Nardone, R., Tedesco, A., D Amore, P., Vittorini, V., Setola, R., Cillis, F.D., Mazzocca, N. Vulnerability modeling and analysis for critical infrastructure protection applications. International Journal of Critical Infrastructure Protection 6(34), 217-227 (2013)... 

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