Threats and Responses

We learn from history, but making predictions from history is another matter altogether. Almost exactly two months before the September 11, 2001, attack on the Pentagon and World Trade Center, a knowledgeable and deservedly respected expert on terrorism wrote a New York Times Op-Ed piece, The Declining Terrorist Threat, in which he said the following  

As perilous as prediction is, in this chapter we try to arrive at a reasonable estimate of just how serious the threat of CBW terrorism is. We can t of course say with any degree of accuracy that there wiU be this or that number of attacks, but we do try to arrive at a realistic sense of how effective—how widespread and lethal—such attacks are likely to be. 

And this is for use against vital institutions and residential populations and drinking water sources and others... 

The chemicals and components in the Trade Center bomb cost less than 15,000. How much more money Yousef would have needed to add cyanide to the bomb, or how he planned to engineer such a device, is not known. But certainly CW armaments were on this terrorist s agenda. 

Probably the most widely reported instance of CW terrorism was the 1995 assault on the Tokyo subway by Aum Shinrikyo, a global apocalyptic religious 

---

Lugar, Richard, The Lugar Survey on Proliferation Threats and Responses, June 2005, United States Senator For Indiana, Chairman Senate Foreign Relations Committee. 

United States Department of Defense, Proliferation Threat and Response, Washington DC United States Government Printing Office (1997). 

DOD has identified Libya, Sudan, Syria, Iraq, Iran, Pakistan, India, China, North Korea, and Russia as countries of concern with respect to nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons capability. See Office of the Secretary of Defense. 2001. Proliferation Threat and Response, 3rd ed., Washington, D.C., January. Available online at . 

Cohen, William S., Secretary of Defense. 1997. Proliferation Threat and Response 1997, Washington, D.C. Available online at . 

U.S. Department of Defense (DoD), 2001. Proliferation threat and response. Report from the Office of the Secretary of Defense, January 2001. available at http //www.dod.mil/ pubs/ptr20010110.pdf (accessed September 17, 2007). 

Perkins, H.C., "Air Pollution", Me Graw-Hill, N.Y., 1974 Lynn, D.A., "Air Pollution Threat and Response", Addison-Wesley, Reading Pa, 1976. 

These official documents were not widely known about at the time, but one US official document did receive widespread coverage. This Department of Defense document was titled Proliferation Threat and Response.32 In part, it gave much more detail on how genetic engineering might be misused to improve biological agents for hostile... 

Biomimetic systems as nonspecific indicators of threat and response... 

Biomimetic systems and devices as nonspecific indicators of threat and response might take the form of a nanocanary, in which a few living cells are harnessed to monitor biological responses to a variety of biologically active test agents. Such biomarker systems would enable a wide spectrum of applications that are adaptable to a broad range of unknown threats, including implantable sensor devices with presymptomatic sensitivity to biomarkers. Therefore, one key to the development of biomimetic systems is to develop analytical tools that can probe in vivo and in vitro cellular processes at the molecular scale with minimal disruption of normal cell function. 

Describing each of these elements of a chemical and biological defense strategy is difficult. Planning tends to focus on narrow conceptions of threats and responses derived from historical events. Outcomes tend to be described in terms of consequences which can be easily measured, such as fatalities and injuries. Options tend to be developed based on incremental modifications to current materiel and operations. Each of these approaches is inadequate for addressing the innovative nature chemical and biological threats. 

US Office of the Secretary of Defense," Proliferation Threat and Response (Washington, DC GPO 1996), http //www.defenselink.mil/pubs/prolif/toc.html. 

Miller, J., 2002. Threats and responses terrorist weapons lab suggests Qaeda planned to build arms, officials say. New York Times, September 14. 

---