Risk analysis populations

The components of a risk analysis involve the estimation of the frequency of an event, an estimation of the consequences (the extent of the material or energy release and its impact on population, property, or environment), and the selection and generation of the estimate of risk itself. 

Probit models have been found generally useful to describe the effects of incident outcome cases on people or property for more complex risk analyses. At the other end of the sc e, the estimation of a distance within which the population would be exposed to a concentration of ERPG-2 or higher may be sufficient to describe the impact of a simple risk analysis. 

Each of the main risk analysis elements consists of three interactive studies. Exposure estimates result from the integration of pollutant dispersion patterns and human population patterns. The dispersion patterns, in turn, result from the joint action of emissions and dispersion processes. 

The simplest approach is to simply identify the likelihood of contact between people and pollutant at significant concentrations. This is often the extent of "risk" analysis of preliminary, multi-media, problem-scoping studies of hazardous or toxic materials (2). In the most detailed approach, finely resolved spatial and temporal patterns ("micro-environments") of concentration are measured for each of many individuals representing finely resolved population groups ("cohorts") characterized by unique "activity patterns" (3, 4 ). 

Ruffle B, Burmaster DE, Anderson PD, Gordon HD (1994) Lognormal distributions for fish consumption by the general US population. Risk Analysis, 14(44) 395 104. 

Spadaro, J.V., Rabl, A. (2004) Pathway analysis for population-total health impacts of toxic metal emissions. Risk Analysis 24 1121-1141. 

Risk assessment is an essential feature of disaster planning and is in essence a calculation or model of risk, in which a comprehensive inventory is created including all existing and potential dangers, the population most likely to be affected by each danger, and a prediction of the health consequences. Risk analysis uses the elements of hazard analysis and vulnerability... 

Risk analysis is an assessment of the likelihood (probability) of an accidental release of a luizardous material and tlie actual consequences tliat might occur, based on tlie estimated vulnerable zones. It provides an estimation of tlie likelihood (probability) of an accidental release, tlie severity of consequences of human injuiy that may occur, the severity of consequences on critical facilities, tlic severity of consequences of damage to property, and the severity of consequences of damage to tlie enviromnent. Risk characterization estimates tlie healtli risk associated with tlie process under investigation. The result of tins cliaracterization is a number tliat represents tlie probability of adverse healtli effects from tliat process or from a substance released in tliat process. Tire major types of risk include Individual Risk, Maximum Individual Risk (MIR), Population Risk (PR), Societal Risk, and Risk Indices. 

The Society for Risk Analysis (SRA) was established in 1981 as a nonprofit organization to foster and promote (1) knowledge and understanding of risk analysis techniques and their applications (2) communication and interaction among individuals engaged in risk analysis (3) application of risk analysis and risk management techniques to the hazards and risks to which individuals and populations are exposed (4) dissemination of risk analysis information and concepts to all interested individuals (5) advancement of the state-of-the-art techniques in all aspects of risk analysis and (6) integration and interaction of the various disciplines involved in risk analysis. 

Futatsuka M, Kitano T, Nagano M, et al. 1992. An epidemiological study with risk analysis of liver diseases in the general population living in a methyl mercury polluted area. J Epidemiol Community Health 46 237-240. 

Hope BK, Generating probabilistic spatially-explicit individual and population exposure estimates for ecological risk assessments, Risk Analysis, 20, 573, 2000. 

The results of this risk analysis indicate that ethylene oxide, non-bnlk shipments of pesticide, and the segment of the chlorine (ton containers) ronted through the low population density can be eliminated from further review. The team also decided that no additional risk mitigation actions were necessary for these transportation activities (and were not reqnired based on the risk ranking). These chemicals and modes of transport will, however, continue to be reviewed and monitored as part of the global risk management program. 

Are data available for the defined scenarios If data are not available, or if reasonable and verifiable assumptions cannot be made that apply to the specific transportation operation, then the scenarios may need to be modified. Simple scenarios—meaning high level or broadly representative ones—are usually better for transportation risk analysis. For instance, a scenario could be defined as a large release of a flammable from a rail car in a populated area as opposed to defining the scenario in this way a flammable rail car derails, rolls down an embankment, crashes into a building at the bottom of the hill, and results in a large release in a populated area. The first scenario, with broader definition, covers the second scenario, as well as rnai r other detailed ones that may be considered. 

In addition to the data elements that go into the frequency and consequence analyses detailed above, there are two other categories of data that will be directly discussed. These include the selection and use of meteorological data in the consequence analysis and the population data for the evaluation of impacts. The reader may refer to Chapter 2 of the Guidelines for Chemical Transportation Risk Analysis (CCPS, 1995) for additional information on these data sources as well as any others not exphcitly discussed in this chapter. 

The results of the semi-quantitative risk analysis focused on a segment of the chlorine (ton container) route through the medium population density and the entire bulk pesticide transportation route. The recommendations developed for consideration included ... 

As part of the semi-quantitative risk analysis report to corporate, the analysis team included an evaluation of the recommended risk mitigation options. For chlorine, the second recommendation was not practical because the end user required ton containers thus, the transport of smaller cylinders was not an option for the customer. Therefore, this recommendation was removed from further consideration. Since ton containers are shipped via truck, an alternate route was discussed with the carrier—a new route that eliminated passing near higher-population densities with little change in the distance or conditions of the route. 

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