Risk Analysis and Human Factors Engineering

Risk Projection and Human Factors as Related to Nuclear Systems, R. J. Nertney (EG G Idaho) 

It is becoming increasingly important that individuals involved in design and evaluation of nuclear systems be knowledgeable in the area of quantitative risk evaluation. 

This is necessary to permit the comparison of accident-incident risks with other managerial risks failure to produce on schedule, failure to iproduce within budget, and failure to produce a functionally adequate product. It is also necessary to make adequate cost-risk-benefit presentations and decisions. 

There are two basic methods for performing quantitative risk projections. 

The first of these iis through use of quantitative fault trees or other failure propagation models. In this case the system is described in an appropriate analytical model, failure probabilities are assigned to elements of the model, and overall system failure probabilities may be determined. These probabilities may then be associated with the consequences of failure to yield risk informatioii. 

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