Mistakes and calculated risks

Mistakes and calculated risks occur at the interpretation and decision-making stage of information processing. Here is where we interpret our sensory input and decide on a course of action. With mistakes, the individual was well-intentioned regarding the ultimate outcome of getting the job done, but used poor judgment in getting there. 

Mistakes and calculated risks are possible among both beginning and experienced workers. New hires make safety-related mistakes when they do not know the safe way to perform a task or when they do not understand the need for special safety precautions. 

I would like to walk through the actual process of determining the safe levels of chemical exposure. There are many phases to this process. One is an experimental determination of hazard that is based on well-defined and well-monitored laboratory animal studies. The second is an estimate of exposure that involves how much residue is found in the food that is actually consumed by people. There are then subjective safety factors—some might call them fudge factors—added to protect against uncertainty and outright mistakes. Finally, the risk is calculated and thresholds set. 

Ensuring business continuity was a significaut motivating factor for improving risk management procedures. This was described, for instance, in the context of communication and actions between the customer and company. Operations with customers have been developed based on experiences. It was extremely important to analyze the actual faults and mistakes, and then utilize the discovered information in practices and instructions throughout the entire company. For instance, the tender calculation process was supported by instructions and checklists made for specific process stages and situations. 

It is unusual for different types of accidents to occur within an organization, and most that continue to occur after the unsafe condition has been removed are the result of unsafe acts or behaviors. The unsafe actions are usually the result of error, violations of best practices, or disregard for established rules and can be avoided. Most often, those making such errors are aware of their mistakes. They take short-cuts even though they have received training, but fall prey to a culture that allows workers to take calculated risks. 

Now suppose you do not buckle yom safety belt. Perhaps you divide your attention between the road and some other task like map reading, phone dialing, or cassette selecting. You know this behavior is unsafe, but you decide to take a calculated risk. Your judgment is faulty, as in a mistake, but xmlike a mistake, your at-risk behavior is deliberate. Such behavior does seem rational because it is not followed by a negative consequence and it is supported with perceived comfort, convenience, or efficiency. 

Experienced workers make mistakes when they take safety for granted and fail to consider the injury potential of a certain at-risk behavior. They take calculated risks when they feel especially skilled at a task, realize they have never been seriously injured at work, and consider the soon and certain benefits of an at-risk behavior to outweigh the improbable costs. 

Was a rule knowingly violated Researchers have proposed an inverse relationship between one s experience on the job and the probability of injury from a mistake. In other words, the more knowledge or skill we have at doing something, the less likely we are to demonstrate poor judgment. On the other hand, the tendency to take a calculated risk increases with experience on the job. This is hiraian nature, and it will not be changed with punishment. 

Many dangerous behaviors are mistakes resulting from poor judgment, not an unconscious or conscious desire to circumvent safety policies and hint someone. When a calculated risk is taken, it is not performed with the idea that someone will get hiuT. As discussed in Chapter 9, specific characteristics of the work environment or culture usually enable or even encourage a calculated risk. Thus, the next question needs careful consideration. 

In summary. By posing these seven questions, I hoped to show the futility of using punishment as a corrective measure in most situations. Errors (cognitive failures and mistakes) are unintentional and often caused by environmental factors. When errors are intentional (as in calculated risks), the person did not intend to cause an injury. Rather, there were factors in the situation that influenced the decision to take the risk. These factors need to be discovered and addressed. 

Both FKAB and Lloyd s Register made the same mistake in design calculations, which was of course obvious with hindsight. Perhaps a thorough risk analysis might have revealed that the design analysis had not considered all possible failure modes. 

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