Credit spreads volatility

The appropriateness of either model (cash-flow-based versus market value-based) will depend on the asset manager s trading style as well as the particulars of the asset class the asset s market liquidity, duration profile, and credit spread volatility. In terms of mechanics, cash flow arbitrage CDOs are no different than balance sheet CDOs, (again, the only difference being their intended pnrpose and asset sourcing strategy). Consequently, one should see the section on Balance Sheet CDOs for further details. Now, we shift the discussion to market value CDOs. 

The reason to use implied volatility is that market anticipates mean reversion and uses the implied volatility to gauge the volatility of individual assets relative to the market. Implied volatility represents a market option about the underlying asset and therefore is forward looking. However, the estimate of implied volatility is conditioned by the choice of other inputs in particular, the credit spread applied in the option-free bond and the conversion premium of the tmderlying asset (Example 9.2). 

Moreover, duration will be influenced by the floater s stmcture. In fact, the choice of the reference rate affects the duration depending on how much volatile the index is. The lower the frequency of couptm payments, the greater the price sensitivity between reset dates. Thus, while floating-rate notes have a lower price sensitivity to a change of the reference rate, fixed and floating-rate notes both have a price sensitivity to changes of credit spread reflecting the issuer s creditworthiness. A shift of the credit term structure will determine the decline of the bond s price. 

In the Euro corporate market s short life, the level of credit spreads and spread volatility have increased almost beyond recognition. As we show in Exhibit 6.9, with the exception of the recovery from the market shock of 11 September 2001, credit spreads moved out more or less in a straight... 

The Das-Tufano (DT) model is an extension of the JLT model. The model aims to produce the risk-neutral transition matrix in a similar way to the JLT model however, this model uses stochastic recovery rates. The final risk neutral transition matrix should be computed from the observable term structures. The stochastic recovery rates introduce more variability in the spread volatility. Spreads are a function of factors that may not only be dependent on the rating level of the credit as in practice, credit spreads may change even though credit ratings have not changed. Therefore, to some extent, the DT model introduces this additional variability into the risk-neutral transition matrix. 

Expiry in Six Months Risk-free rate = 10% Strike = 70 bps Credit spread = 60 bps Volatility = 20% Mean Reversion Model Price Standard Black Scholes Price Difference Between Standard Black Scholes and Mean Reversion Model Price... 

First generation pricing models for credit spread options may use models as described in the section on spread models. The key market parameters in a spread option model include the forward credit spread and the volatility of the credit spread. 

The volatility of the credit spread is a difficult parameter to determine. It may be approached in different ways including ... 

In this way, any changes of shape and perceptions of the premium for CDS protection are reflected in the spreads observed in the market. In periods of extreme price volatility, as seen in the middle of 2002, the curves may invert to reflect the fact that the cost of protection for shorter-dated protection trades at wider levels than the longer-dated protection. This is consistent with the pricing theory for credit default swaps. 

During the financial crash of2007—2008, in reaction to bond market volatility around the world brought about by the bank liquidity crisis and subsequent global recession, the USD swap spread widened, as did the spread between 2- and 10-year swaps, reflecting market worries about credit and counterparty risk. Spreads narrowed in the first quarter of 2009, as credit concerns sparked by the 2007—2008 market corrections declined. The evolution of the 2- and 10-year USD swap spreads is shown in FIGURES 7.4 and 7.5. 

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