Forecasts consensus

Period of 4 trading days before announcement and 3 trading days after announcement T Period of 4 trading days before announcement and 40 trading days alter announcement Cumulative excess return of specific company over FTSE Chemical Europe performance "" (Reported annual EPS-consensus forecast EP )/(absoiute value of consensus forecast EPS) Source McKinsey... 

Implementing FVA into the demand management process requires that forecasts be recorded and saved before and after each cycle. Having the capabilities to store forecast history by a stream of activities (e.g., consensus forecast adjustments, managerial overrides, price lift calculations, etc.) is critical to measuring the value-added, or non-value-added, contribution to the overall process. Utilizing the statistical baseline forecast as the default is the key to establishing a benchmark to measure the effectiveness of all the touch points in the process. Unfortunately, few companies capture the appropriate data, or the level of detail on a historical basis, to conduct FVA. This is an opportunity. 

Subjective Forecasts can be made on a subjective basis using judgment, intuition, commercial knowledge or any other relevant information. Methods range widely, like the Delphi technique, in which a group of forecasters tries to obtain a consensus forecast with controlled feedback of other analysts predictions and opinions, and other relevant information. 

In this approach, a group of senior executives of the company from various departments meet, discuss, and arrive at consensus forecasts for products and services. This is primarily a top-down approach. Once the forecasts are agreed upon by the top management, they are communicated to the various departments for use in planning their activities. Because of the face-to-face meetings used in this approach, the forecasts may be skewed due to the... 

To ensure that there is enough capacity and resources available to achieve the consensus forecast it is necessary to produce a rough cut capacity plan - otherwise known as a resource plan. Essentially the logic behind the rough cut capacity plan is to look at the aggregate product family forecast for the planning period and to translate that into the capacity and resources needed, e g. how much machine time, how much time in an assembly process, how much transport capacity and so on. 

L. L. Bean has a buying committee that decides on the quantity of each product to be ordered. Based on demand over the past few years, the buyers have estimated the demand distribution for a women s red ski parka to be as shown in Table 13-1. This is a deviation from its traditional practice of using the average historical demand as the consensus forecast. To simplify the discussion, we assume that all demand is in hundreds of parkas. The manufacturer also requires that L. L. Bean place orders in multiples of 100. In Table 13-1, p, is the probability that demand equals and P, is the probability that demand is less than or equal to D,. From Table 13-1, we evaluate the expected demand for parkas as... 

When used in a ritual context by the shaman, teonanacatl provided a bridge between everyday consensus reality and extraordinary states of consciousness that allowed perception of events and situations that were not ordinarily accessible the weather was forecast, illness was diagnosed, aspects of the future might be seen, such as whether or not the harvest would be good. Thus, his ingestion of the God s flesh made the Aztec shaman seem like a god, able to transcend time and space. 

A similar examination of feed and product prices along the value chain of a given chemical can usually provide valuable insights into the best method of forecasting. No method is perfect, and anyone capable of accurately predicting commodity prices would be well advised to pursue a more lucrative career than chemical engineering. For process design purposes, it is usually sufficient to show that the prices used for optimization and economic analysis are realistic and consistent with consensus views of the market. 

A good demand management process will enhance the S OP analysis by providing a consensus demand forecasting environment that incorporates statistical methodologies, dashboarding capabilities and... 

Process management skills to ensure to get a one number forecast. This entails getting a cross-functional team to come to a consensus on the forecasts. 

For long-term (>1 year) and medium-term (6 months to a year) forecasting, most firms preferred qualitative methods, in particular, executive committee consensus. 

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