United Kingdom gilts market

In order to calculate the range of implied forward rates, we require the term stmcture of spot rates for all periods along the continuous discount function. This is not possible in practice, because a bond market will only contain a finite number of coupon-bearing bonds maturing on discrete dates. While the coupon yield curve can be observed, we are then required to fit the observed curve to a continuous term structure. Note that in the United Kingdom gilt market, for example there is a zero-coupon bond market, so that it is possible to observe spot rates directly, but for reasons of liquidity, analysts prefer to use a fitted yield curve (the theoretical curve) and compare this to the observed curve. 

Due to the lag in the United Kingdom gilt market, for index-hnked gilts the base RPI is actually the level recorded for the 8 months before the issue date. 

We consider first a classic repo in the United Kingdom gilt market between two market counterparties, in the 5.75% Treasury 2009 gilt stock. The terms of the trade are given in Exhibit 10.3 and illustrated in Exhibit 10.4. Note that the terms of a classic repo trade are identical, irrespective of which market the deal is taking place in. So the basic trade, illustrated in Exhibit 10.3, would be recognisable for bond repo in European and Asian markets. 

See Choudhiy (2002) for more information on the repo markets and the United Kingdom gilt repo market. 

Bonds that have part or all of their cash flows linked to an inflation index form an important segment of several government bond markets. In the United Kingdom, the first index-linked bonds were issued in 1981 and at the end of 2012 they accounted for approximately 25% of outstanding nominal value in the gilt market. Index-linked bonds were also introduced in the United States Treasury market but are more established in Australia, Canada,... 

One final point regarding duration is that it is possible to calculate a tax-adjusted duration for an index-linked bond in markets where there is a different tax treatment to indexed bonds compared to conventional bonds. In the United States market, the returns on indexed and conventional bonds are taxed in essentially the same manner, so that in similar fashion to Treasury strips, the inflation adjustment to the indexed bond s principal is taxable as it occurs, and not only on the maturity date. Therefore, in the US-indexed bonds do not offer protection against any impact of after-tax effects of high inflation. That is, Tips real yields reflect a premium for only pretax inflation risk. In the United Kingdom market however, index-linked gilts receive preferential tax treatment, so their yields... 

In Chapter 11 of the author s book The Bond and Money Markets, we show some approaches used to measure inflation expectations, with reference to the United Kingdom index-linked gilts. To recap, these measures include ... 

Using the prices of index-linked bonds, it is possible to estimate a term structure of real interest rates. The estimation of such a curve provides a real interest counterpart to the nominal term structure that was discussed in the previous chapters. More important it enables us to derive a real forward rate curve. This enables the real yield curve to be used as a somce of information on the market s view of expected future inflation. In the United Kingdom market, there are two factors that present problems for the estimation of the real term structure the first is the 8-month lag between the indexation uplift and the cash flow date, and the second is the fact that there are fewer index-linked bonds in issue, compared to the number of conventional bonds. The indexation lag means that in the absence of a measure of expected inflation, real bond yields are dependent to some extent on the assumed rate of future inflatiOTi. The second factor presents practical problems in curve estimation in December 1999 there were only 11 index-linked gilts in existence, and this is not sufficient for most models. Neither of these factors presents an insurmountable problem however, and it is stiU possible to estimate a real term structure. 

Index-linked gilts, like all other linkers covered in this chapter, are known as capital indexed bonds, where the income and principal are adjusted for changes in a consumer price index, subject to a lag. In the United Kingdom, the index is the RPI and the lag is eight months. The market trades on a clean price basis, with the quoted price a cash price (not a real price), including inflation accretion. 

Securities issued by the government of the United Kingdom are known as gilts. The gilts market is the oldest government bond market in the world. In this chapter we present an overview of the gilts market, its structure, and institutions. 

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